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The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates again—on December 10th, the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.50%-3.75%. This is the third rate cut this year, with a total easing of 75 basis points. It sounds very positive, but things aren't that simple.

**The signals are actually quite hawkish**. The dot plot reveals a message: there may be only one rate cut in 2026. This suggests that the rate-cutting cycle might be nearing its end. Powell also repeatedly emphasized at the press conference that decisions are made "at each meeting," implying not to overthink it.

**But the market simply doesn’t buy this**. How about U.S. stocks? The Dow surged nearly 500 points, and the S&P 500 approached its historical high. Precious metals? Silver hit a new all-time high. U.S. Treasury yields turned downward, and the dollar is also retreating. The entire market has one attitude: optimism.

Why? In a low-interest-rate environment, money flows outward, and risk assets become the favorites. Coupled with soft employment data, the market tends to believe that accommodative policies will continue to support the economy. So, the fact of the rate cut directly overshadowed hawkish expectations. In the short term, expectations for a "Santa Claus rally" are heating up.