#美联储降息 The Bank of Japan is about to raise interest rates, so why isn't the crypto community panicking?

Remember the last cycle? When the central bank raised rates, $BTC plummeted from $65,000 to $50,000, and $ETH dropped from 3000 to 2000. The yen soared. The market was truly scared that time.

But this time is different. Pay attention to these two key points:

First, the speculative long positions in yen held by traders are already substantial, making quick reactions difficult in the short term. Second, Japanese government bond yields have been rising since the beginning of the year, with both short-term and long-term yield curves hitting new highs — in other words, the market has already reacted; this isn't breaking news.

Moreover, this week the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut and also introduced liquidity support. This combination has lowered the market’s sensitivity to sudden shocks. The scenario of a large yen carry trade unwinding and risk aversion exploding before the end of the year is less likely to recur.

Is the story of rate hikes over?

There are internal reports indicating that officials at the Bank of Japan believe interest rates might need to be pushed above 0.75% to approach the end of this rate hike cycle. Some even speculate that reaching 1% would still be too low compared to the so-called "neutral interest rate."

What is the neutral interest rate? Simply put, it’s like finding the "comfortable temperature" for the economy — a policy stance that neither stimulates nor tightens. The BOJ estimates this range to be roughly between 1% and 2.5%, with room for movement both ways.

Governor Ueda and other officials' previous comments on the neutral rate have already prompted market speculation. Almost all analysts are betting that rates will be raised to 0.75% next Friday. But what everyone is really watching for is whether the central bank will provide an updated analysis of the neutral rate — this directly impacts the pace of future rate hikes.

Current market forecasts suggest that the final rate might stabilize around 1.25%. What does that mean? Besides this move, there could be two more rate hikes in the future.

While the BOJ is likely to keep emphasizing that the "environment remains accommodative," officials will actually be closely monitoring loan data and banks' lending willingness to judge whether current rates are truly loose.

In simple terms: the pace of rate hikes is there, but the market has enough expectation buffers and room to absorb shocks. $DOGE and the traditional crypto risk-avoidance strategies probably won't play out so easily this time.