Can you still play the year-end market? BTC is hovering around 90K, and the recent trend actually explains the situation quite well.

Yesterday, after the Federal Reserve completed its rate cut, Bitcoin showed little movement in 24 hours—currently stuck at $90,338, with a gain of only 0.1%. The total market cap of the crypto market is $3.17 trillion, up 0.3%, with Ethereum around $3,125. It seems the market is holding steady. Interestingly, privacy coins and the Polkadot ecosystem are quite active, with FOLKS surging 228%, indicating that funds are still looking for opportunities. The fear and greed index is now at 27, in the fear zone. Although sentiment is low, there are no signs of a major crash.

There are quite a few noteworthy developments. The multi-chain version of XRP, wXRP, just launched on Solana and Ethereum, with liquidity surpassing $100 million. A leading compliant platform is preparing to introduce tokenized US stocks. The Layer2 sector is leading the gains slightly, indicating that capital is gradually shifting toward more practical sectors.

How to interpret on-chain data? Long-term holders have not moved their chips; ETF assets exceed $12 billion, and there are no signs of large-scale institutional sell-offs. This at least shows that big funds are not hopeless about the future. The leverage ratio is normalizing, and funds are quietly rotating from traditional hot spots to RWA, Layer2, and privacy computing sectors, seemingly laying the groundwork for the practical narratives of 2026. Overall, the market is in a "post-leverage correction" stage.

How to operate technically? On the 4-hour chart, BTC's RSI is in a neutral zone (around 45), with short-term support at $89,500 and resistance at $92,000. If US stocks stabilize, BTC is expected to consolidate between $90,500 and $91,500 (about 65% probability), with Ethereum adjusting to around $3,150. Conversely, with thinner liquidity during the holiday season, selling pressure may push prices down, with a roughly 35% chance of dropping to $89,000.

Here's a suggestion: remain mostly on the sidelines for now. If you’re going long, set your stop-loss at $89,800. XRP and Layer2 have high beta, so you can consider small positions. Honestly, at this time of year, there’s no absolute bottom—policy signals and market sentiment are the main drivers. Managing risk well is more important than anything else.