Looking at the data of a certain project, I have to ask—is this valuation reasonable?

A market cap of 500 million against a fully unlocked amount of 2 billion, this ratio itself is quite questionable. Even more outrageous is that the project's activity level is far below expectations, mainly relying on a small circle of users, and there’s no effective revenue model.

The spot market hasn't even launched, yet the contracts are being pushed hard. I understand the logic of market makers eating short positions, but this approach is a bit too... straightforward. Isn't this just roasting oneself over the fire?

Let's do some math: even a 1 billion market cap feels risky now, and they want to push it to 4 billion with full circulation? Unless there's real capital backing behind it—several tens of millions of dollars—it's unlikely to stabilize this market.

For retail investors, losing 100U is not a big deal if given as a gift. But if someone really wants to buy the dip, they should be prepared for stop-losses, setting them around the 1 billion market cap level, which is more realistic. Otherwise, the risk is really high.