The Bank of Japan's latest rate hike has arrived, but the market isn't as panicked as last time.

Do you remember the last time? As soon as the rate hike news was announced, Bitcoin plummeted from 65,000 to 50,000, and Ethereum dropped below 2000 from 3000. The entire community was screaming. But this time, the script is indeed a bit different, supported by two core reasons.

**First is that the market has been psychologically prepared for this**

The net long positions in the Japanese yen have accumulated quite a bit recently, and there's little room for short-term speculative trading to push it further. More importantly, Japan's government bond yields have been rising since the beginning of the year, with both long and short-term yields hitting new highs. Simply put, the market has already digested the rate hike expectations, so it won't be completely stunned by an actual rate increase.

**Second is that the Fed is backing it up**

This week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and introduced liquidity support policies, indicating that global financial conditions are easing. This directly reduces one risk—the previous biggest concern was large-scale unwinding of yen carry trades at year's end, causing funds to suddenly exit the market. Now, the likelihood of such chain reactions has significantly decreased.

**But this isn't the end**

Internal sources reveal that the Bank of Japan's idea is to raise rates to at least above 0.75%, possibly close to 1% before considering it a basic level. Market estimates for the "neutral interest rate" are between 1% and 2.5%—in other words, there is still room for future adjustments.

Currently, 50 analysts almost unanimously predict that next Friday, the central bank will raise the rate to 0.75%. What's truly interesting is whether the bank will announce a new neutral interest rate estimate, which could directly reveal the future rate hike path over the next few months.

**What does this mean for us?**

In simple terms, this time there's more buffer, more expectation management, and support from Fed policies. The old pattern of "Yen surging → capital fleeing → crypto market plunging" has become less likely to repeat.

The story in the crypto market is shifting from "global liquidity tightening" to "large funds reallocating assets." Historical experience tells us that the greater the volatility in traditional markets, the more likely it is for independent trends in digital assets to emerge.