Recently, the crypto world has been a bit tangled up due to two pieces of news.

On one side is the new interest rate decision just announced by the Federal Reserve—cutting rates by 25 basis points, with the benchmark rate now maintained in the 3.50-3.75% range. It seems like liquidity is about to loosen, but BTC and ETH haven't surged accordingly. On the other side are rumors that the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates, which would be unprecedented in the past 30 years. Many people, upon hearing this news, started to panic, thinking the global financial landscape is about to change.

Actually, my view is this—market expectations for positive news have already been priced in, and the real negative news hasn't materialized yet. So right now, the market is oscillating back and forth, waiting for further guidance on the direction.

To put it simply, why hasn't the rate cut ignited the market? Many people habitually think that a rate cut equals liquidity injection, and liquidity injection must lead to a bull market. But the current market logic is far from that straightforward. The news of this rate cut by the Federal Reserve has long been incorporated into traders' and major institutions' trading models. So when the positive news actually materializes, the bulls won't rush in just because it "meets expectations"; instead, some profit-taking begins to escape.

Additionally, the factors influencing risk assets are now much more complex. The direction of the US dollar index, changes in US Treasury yields, stock market fluctuations, oil prices—these all are acting simultaneously. A single interest rate figure can't determine the overall situation. This explains why we often see this phenomenon: positive news arrives but initially causes volatility because the market has to digest too much information.