Next year, the macro environment will change. The Federal Reserve and major central banks such as those in Europe and Australia are expected to shift their stance, moving from aggressive rate cuts in 2025 to maintaining or raising interest rates. The reason is quite realistic—last year, countries flooded the market too aggressively, causing risk assets like US stocks, European stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies to all rise. But the problem is, these major assets are now at neutral interest rate levels, and the room for further monetary easing has basically disappeared.

What does this mean? In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, without new liquidity support, the market will face pressure. Following this logic, Bitcoin will return to around $70,000, and Ethereum is likely to hover around $2,000.

If you are trading these assets, you can consider this: for long-term positions, decisively short when there is a rebound to the high points; for short-term trading, repeatedly operate within the volatility, and once a significant rebound occurs, go 1x short (this way, risk is manageable and it’s less likely to get liquidated). Hold onto the trapped positions; in the end, the bear market will be profitable. The key is to wait and not wander in a daze in the middle.