Wu's Weekly Macro Indicators and Analysis: US November Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI, Japan, Europe, and UK Interest Rate Decisions

Compilation: GaryMa Wu on Blockchain

Summary Wu’s Weekly Macro Indicators and Analysis: Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected and announced the resumption of RMP, with three dissenting votes; this week’s focus includes the US November Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI data, as well as interest rate decisions from Japan, Europe, and the UK.

Last Week’s Review

The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate upper limit at 3.75%, in line with expectations of 3.75%, down from 4.00%, a 25 basis point decrease. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos stated that there were three dissenting votes at this meeting: Goolsbee and Schmid opposed the rate cut, while Miran advocated for a 50 basis point cut. The latest SEP shows that of the 19 officials, 6 do not support a rate cut, and the median dot path for 2026 remains unchanged. The Fed also announced it would start reserve management purchases this week, with $40 billion in T-bills purchased monthly.

For the week ending December 6, US initial unemployment claims were 236,000, versus an expected 220,000; the previous figure was revised from 191,000 to 192,000. The US trade deficit in September was -$52.8 billion, compared to an expected -$63.3 billion; the previous was revised from -$59.6 billion to -$59.3 billion. The September trade deficit narrowed to the lowest level since June 2020.

China’s November CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose by 0.7% YoY, the highest since March 2024. MoM, it slightly declined by 0.1%.

The People’s Bank of China announced that at the end of November, broad money M2 increased by 8% YoY, below market expectations of 8.2%.

Key Events & Indicators This Week December 16

US November Unemployment Rate (21:30)

US November Non-Farm Payrolls (seasonally adjusted) (in ten thousand) (21:30)

December 18

UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (20:00)

Eurozone European Central Bank Deposit Mechanism Rate (21:15)

US November Unadjusted CPI Year-over-Year Rate (21:30)

US Week of December 13 Initial Jobless Claims (in ten thousand) (21:30)

December 19

Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision (TBD)

US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Index (23:00)

US December 1-Year Inflation Expectations Final (23:00)