#加密生态动态追踪 The Bitcoin Dilemma in Year-End Slump: Hovering at 89K, Panic Sets In

The winter crypto market feels a bit tough. $BTC is currently at $89,350, with a 24-hour increase of only 0.9%, a total market cap of $3.05 trillion, and a market rally of 0.7% — these numbers look good, but the Fear & Greed Index is only at 24, indicating extreme fear. Year-end liquidity is thin, combined with volatile AI stocks, and signs of investor retreat are very evident.

What are institutions doing? Interesting rotations are happening. Global crypto funds experienced a net inflow of $716 million, but ETF outflows and year-end selling pressure are hard to absorb. BitMine increased holdings by 150 million ETH, while XRP ETFs saw a net inflow of $898 million — this suggests the market isn't purely pessimistic but is selecting directions. Core DAO surged 29%, and Layer2 projects like Merlin Chain performed strongly. Meme and AI sectors are somewhat active, but with trading volumes around $9.5 billion, there's still a bit of a coolness factor.

What about on-chain signals? BTC has realized $8.69 billion in capital inflow, with long-term holders holding steady, showing resilience. But the hidden risks of leverage liquidations have emerged, and short-term risks are real. $ETH is currently at $3,112, up 0.3%, moving in tandem with BTC. On a macro level, BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq remains high, and concerns about an AI bubble have dragged down the entire risk asset sector.

From a capital perspective, speculative funds are reallocating — shifting from broad speculation to Layer2, RWA, and privacy computing. This sends a signal that the market might be positioning itself for the practical narrative of 2026. Currently, the market is caught between deleveraging recovery and low sentiment, making rebounds fragile.

What about technical analysis? The 4-hour RSI is neutral at around 45, with short-term support at $88,500 and resistance at $90,500. If liquidity warms up over the weekend, the market is likely to range between $89,000 and $90,000 (probability 65%), with ETH adjusting to around $3,150. Conversely, if panic selling intensifies, a dip to $88,000 (probability 35%) is not impossible.

Recommendation: It’s best to stay cautious at this stage. If you want to go long, operate with a light position, and set a stop-loss at $88,800. High-beta assets like XRP and Merlin Chain can be watched, but don’t expect strong catalysts in the short term — the market rhythm is still driven by data and sentiment. Without big news, there’s no turnaround.