Recently, MERL's market performance has been quite fierce, soaring to $0.45 in a short period, and now fluctuating around $0.436 with repeated oscillations. Its market capitalization has also entered the top 100. Seeing this upward momentum, many people are full of enthusiasm, believing it's a signal of ignition.

But after carefully analyzing the data, I am increasingly convinced that this is a typical pump-and-dump scheme designed to lure investors. The manipulators take advantage of the weekend when liquidity is thin to aggressively push the price up, aiming to stimulate retail traders' bullish emotions and create momentum for subsequent buy-in.

Honestly, my current attitude towards MERL is completely bearish. The bearish pattern is already set in stone, with triple pressures stacking up, leaving little room for a rebound.

**Technical indicators have already turned weak**

This rally has attempted multiple times to break through $0.45 but has all failed to hold, clearly being heavily suppressed by this key resistance level. Every attempt to push higher is followed by a sharp sell-off. Looking at the candlestick arrangement, the trend has shifted from a bullish setup to a more volatile and weak pattern. Especially in a low liquidity environment, such pump attempts often create false breakouts, enticing retail investors to chase the rally. Once liquidity normalizes, the likelihood of a sharp drop increases significantly.

**Supply-side pressure is imminent**

The December unlocking schedule is packed to the point of excess: on the 12th, 15th, 16th, and 19th, nearly 70 million MERL will be released. This will cause a direct surge in circulating supply, which is a hard constraint. Any subsequent rally will be ruthlessly hit by these low-cost tokens being dumped. This constitutes a definite supply-side pressure.

**On-chain whale actions reveal true intentions**

Recently, a large holder directly transferred 16 million MERL (equivalent to about $8 million) from a cold wallet to Bybit. This move is extremely straightforward. Usually, such actions imply preparing to reduce holdings or hedge positions in advance. Strikingly, this was done right before the unlock date, clearly aiming to front-run and avoid slippage on the unlock day. Such on-chain fund movements are visible to the market and send a direct bearish signal. Others, seeing this, will have negative expectations, leading to flocks of selling and a sudden market sentiment collapse.

**Overall judgment: Sell pressure > Buying interest**

The technical top is clear, a flood of supply is imminent, and fund escape signals are explicit. The certainty and strength of sell pressure completely outweigh any buying. The price is likely to follow the old pattern of "anticipated sell-off → slow decline → panic acceleration."

My current strategy is to short on rallies, avoiding waiting for another fake bullish candle to trap buyers. Short-term entry points are around $0.43–$0.45. Once a clear breakdown occurs, risk management becomes more straightforward. This opportunity is quite obvious; don’t be fooled by the surface-level gains.