2025-12-15 05:30:45

#加密生态动态追踪 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin becoming invalid? This hypothesis has been gaining more and more attention in the market recently. A well-known Wall Street analyst openly stated: Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of January 2026. From the current price level, this implies an increase of over 170%.

What’s going on? According to traditional logic, Bitcoin follows the halving cycle, completing a full bull-bear cycle every four years. This theory has been quite effective in the past. But now, the situation has changed.

There are three main changes:

**First, the players have changed.** In the past, retail investors dominated; now, institutions and national funds are rushing in. Whales are turning over, and the game rules are changing. Bitcoin is no longer purely a retail asset but has become part of macro asset allocation, and its volatility logic is naturally different.

**Second, the policy engine is stronger.** While halving cycles are important, the Federal Reserve’s liquidity policies may have a more direct impact. Expectations of rate cuts and loose monetary conditions release energy that often surpasses halving events. Between 2025 and 2026, macroeconomic drivers could be more powerful than expected.

**Third, the price range has already been broken through early.** Bitcoin has already surpassed the previous high, rewriting the historical script. The cycle evolution is accelerating significantly, indicating that the market structure is indeed different.

How are these numbers calculated? $180,000 corresponds to a Bitcoin market cap of nearly $3.5 trillion. This is about one-third of the total global gold market value — from this comparison, it doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable.

This analyst also has a track record of accurate predictions. In 2017, he correctly predicted Bitcoin would break $10,000 (it eventually surged to $14,000). He’s bold but often sees things early.

If this really happens, the market will enter a new phase: Bitcoin will no longer be solely bound by halving cycles but will be more deeply linked to global interest rate changes and fiscal policy battles. Can your trading logic keep up with this rhythm?

Is $180,000 a prophet or nonsense? We’ll see in 2026.

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AltcoinMarathoner

· 5h ago

ngl the 4-year cycle death narrative hits different when institutions are literally rewriting the playbook. just like hitting mile 20 in an ultramarathon—the old pace doesn't work anymore, entire strategy shifts. macro flows > halving events now, that's the real plot twist here.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 12-15 18:48

$180,000? This guy is starting to boast again. A 170% increase is indeed tempting, but can institutions really be that obedient in lifting the market? The four-year cycle has indeed failed; now everything is driven by macro policies. We retail investors can't keep up with the pace; we're just being cut. Bitcoin has become a toy for institutions, so what cycle are we talking about? Let's see how 2026 turns out before making any conclusions. Those who believe in this theory will have to wait. The Federal Reserve's "policy engine" is indeed powerful, even more effective than halving. Comparing gold's market value to that set feels a bit forced to make a point. This analyst was right in 2017, but what about the success rate? The game has changed, so our trading strategies must change accordingly. $180,000... See you in my dreams, everyone.

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HackerWhoCares

· 12-15 06:00

Tsk, another Wall Street prediction that’s hard to imagine, still betting on our BTC Institutions eat the meat, retail investors drink the soup. This time, it might really be different A 170% increase sounds outrageous, but it’s not entirely nonsense... Just worried it’s another wave of IQ tax Halving cycle invalid? Forget it, policies are the real boss ¥180,000 still depends on the Fed’s mood, don’t believe those Wall Street guys who boast

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AirdropCollector

· 12-15 05:59

The rules of institutional entry into the game have really changed, retail investors are having a hard time keeping up...

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GateUser-addcaaf7

· 12-15 05:58

180,000? Is this guy bragging again? Haha Institutional entry definitely changes the game rules, but a 170% increase is still a bit exaggerated. The Federal Reserve's approach is the real locomotive; Bitcoin has long ceased to be just a retail investor toy. I believe in the four-year cycle failure, but predicting specific prices? Just wait and see, I can't change it anyway. The analogy of one-third of gold's market value is okay, but who dares say that interest rate policies can stay loose until 2026? Last time when it hit $10,000, it was indeed accurate, but this time the numbers are a bit exaggerated.

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SatoshiLeftOnRead

· 12-15 05:54

180,000? Feels like another round of the 'cutting leeks' narrative. I'm still slowly accumulating. Institutional entry has indeed changed the game, but saying the cycle is invalid might be a bit of an exaggeration. The expectation of interest rate cuts is correct; the Federal Reserve is the real mover. However, comparing gold to one-third of the market feels a bit of a leap of faith. That success in 2017 is always brought up—probably survivor bias. Instead of trusting predictions, it's better to trust your own risk control. Don't be blinded by the 180,000 dream. Let's see next year; after all, history will always provide the answer.

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StableGeniusDegen

· 12-15 05:45

Institutions take over, retail investors get cut, the old cycle theory should retire --- 170% increase? One-third of gold? It sounds crazy but the math indeed checks out... --- The Federal Reserve’s engine is much more powerful than the halving; this is the real main trend --- In 2017, I predicted $10,000; this guy definitely has some skills, I don’t think his current prediction is too far off --- Four-year cycle is dead, now it’s all about macro factors and institutional movements; trading logic must be completely changed --- 180,000? If it really hits, I’ll quit my job directly; otherwise, it’s just another wealth redistribution --- Whale handover game rules change; retail investors still looking at K-line charts have already lost --- Policy engine > halving cycle; this is the core logic for 2025-2026 --- Breaking through the previous high rewrites the script; it sounds a bit mystical but I truly feel the acceleration --- One-third of global gold market value, from a macro asset allocation perspective, it’s not that crazy

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Blockwatcher9000

· 12-15 05:43

Institutions are really accumulating, the four-year cycle is already outdated.

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