Recently, some people have suggested that the four-year bull and bear cycle theory of Bitcoin is outdated, which sounds quite interesting. Thinking about it carefully, the traditional four-year cycle is indeed based on the logic of halving events—each halving reduces supply and then pushes up prices. But the current situation has long changed.

The influx of ETFs, continuous institutional funding, central banks releasing liquidity, and changes in the global geopolitical landscape—these factors have a much greater impact on the market than technical factors like halving. To put it simply, the current crypto market has become a risk asset trading arena everywhere, and the mysterious four-year cycle magic has long faded.

Interestingly, when big Wall Street institutions and central banks from various countries come in to set rules, retail investors are still counting days waiting for halving. That in itself is quite ironic. The real market cycle is now entirely determined by external macro environments—maybe 18 months, or stretched to 6 years, who can say for sure.

People at the core of the industry, their judgments basically reflect the consensus already reached at the institutional level. If even they say so, then retail investors clinging to old routines might really be falling behind the times.