Recently, discussions about quantum computing have heated up again, focusing on an old question: Will Satoshi Nakamoto's 1 million BTC be cracked by quantum computers and dumped on the market?

Interestingly, the market tends to start pricing risks based on imagination whenever it reaches a certain stage. But what's even more fascinating is that—those reasons in Bitcoin's history for being sentenced to death ultimately became its upgrade points.

Many people immediately ask: Can quantum computers crack BTC? How long would it take? This question is obviously media-driven. The real question worth asking is: If quantum computing truly threatens BTC, will it be destroyed overnight, or will it be a gradual process?

The answer is the latter, and it will be a very slow, fully engineered approach. From a technical standpoint, humanity is still several orders of magnitude away from building a quantum machine capable of cracking ECDSA.

Therefore, there won't be a scenario where BTC is suddenly hacked overnight. A more realistic progression is as follows: a breakthrough at a national laboratory → publication of academic papers → reproducible engineering verification → small-scale experimental attacks → industry-wide response.

In other words, this is a threat that can be observed several years in advance and is not a sudden black swan event. This is particularly crucial and can directly refute stories like "Satoshi's wallet is suddenly emptied one day."

The reason is simple: truly capable quantum machines for attacking ECDSA are definitely state-level resources. Countries possessing this technology would prioritize other targets first—such as military communications, intelligence systems, financial clearinghouses, and the encryption systems of rival nations.

Compared to these strategic assets, what is BTC’s market value? Using such enormous technological power to attack Bitcoin is like dropping a nuclear bomb on a warehouse—it’s completely uneconomical.

If I had to give a timetable for the quantum threat, my judgment is as follows:

Within the next 5 years, this threat can almost be ignored; from 5 to 15 years, it might enter a stage where engineering preparations are needed; after 15 years, it could become a system-level decision variable.

And even then, it won’t be just quantum targeting Bitcoin alone, but quantum threatening the entire world’s cryptographic infrastructure—meaning banks, military systems, and global communications will all face cracking risks.

By that point, what you really need to worry about will certainly not be BTC’s price anymore.