#加密生态动态追踪 Global Central Bank Policy Overview: Market Turbulence Resurges (Mid-December 2025 Market Snapshot)

The USD side is quite interesting. Federal Reserve officials have been repeatedly emphasizing that employment risks are what they truly care about. Paulson straightforwardly stated that although tariffs could increase costs, there is currently no widespread inflation spread. Hamarak went further, saying that current policies are already close to neutral interest rates, and he tends to maintain a tightening stance. He also pointed out that the dollar’s weakness actually reflects a "normal" shift of funds by investors—which is a significant signal for traders focused on $BTC and $ETH. Goolsby’s attitude is more conservative, advocating for continued observation of data before considering rate cuts, predicting that next year’s rate cuts will exceed the market’s median expectations. Schmidt reiterated that inflation remains high and that restrictive monetary policy should continue.

On the GBP side, the situation is the opposite. UK economic data in October shrank by 0.1%, with the growth momentum slowing down throughout the year. Traders have already begun heavily betting that the Bank of England will ease, with market expectations of a cumulative cut of up to 60 basis points by the end of 2026. Interestingly, a survey by the Bank of England itself shows that 38% of respondents believe interest rates will rise in the next year—this divergence in expectations indicates that the market is still digesting the policy shift.

Japan’s central bank actions are the most noteworthy. They will begin reducing ETF holdings as early as January, a concrete reflection of the balance sheet reduction process. During this week’s policy meeting, the central bank will commit to further rate hikes but also emphasize that the pace of hikes will depend on economic responses. Some officials even believe that the neutral interest rate could be above 1%—suggesting they are reserving space for more aggressive policies later. Finance Minister Sago Katayama expressed support, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Nori Kihara used survey results to support the judgment of a gradual economic recovery. Another detail is that most Japanese companies’ salary increase expectations for FY2026 remain unchanged from last year—stable but not aggressive.

$ETH and $BTC traders need to pay attention to: this divergence in global central bank policies—Fed tightening, Bank of England easing, and cautious rate hikes in Japan—will directly impact capital flows into risk assets. In the short term, the strength of the dollar and fluctuations in real interest rates remain the core variables driving the crypto market.