Last week, Goldman Sachs stated that the RMB is undervalued by 25%,



My first thought upon seeing this news was that this is very likely a move by the US to force the RMB to appreciate,

Why does the US want to force the RMB to appreciate?

China is an export-oriented economy, and a continuous appreciation of the RMB means a shrinking trade surplus,

How to understand the trade surplus:
RMB becoming more expensive = made in China becomes more expensive
RMB becoming cheaper = made in China becomes cheaper

Therefore, RMB appreciation causes Chinese goods to lose their price advantage,

For example,
Pinduoduo and Michelin restaurants at the same price,
Pinduoduo and Amazon at the same price,
Would you still shop around?

After Trump took office, he aimed to bring manufacturing back, protect American manufacturing, and boost employment,

Not only Trump, but all previous presidents have relied on these key issues to win votes.

RMB appreciation means that the production costs of Chinese companies (measured in USD) increase,

As Chinese companies' production costs rise, their goods lose price competitiveness,

Theoretically, this can help bring manufacturing back to the US,

And trade is two-way,

RMB appreciation means that Chinese people can exchange more USD for their RMB,

This will increase US exports to China, directly benefiting US export-oriented companies.

However, if the US wants the RMB to appreciate, it doesn't dare to let the RMB appreciate too much,

Too much appreciation could exacerbate US inflation,

It could potentially trigger a secondary inflation,

And there's also US debt,

If the RMB appreciates, China can't ignore it,

To maintain the exchange rate, China might sell US Treasuries,

This could cause US Treasury yields to soar, increasing US debt pressure.

From a macro perspective, looking at a single event is useless; it must be viewed in conjunction with other factors.
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