The valuation of the #美联储降息 stablecoin sector and related listed companies is indeed a hot topic right now. Supporters and skeptics are both making strong arguments, each with their own logic.

Optimists mainly bet on the long-term penetration of the crypto ecosystem. They believe stablecoins will gradually evolve into a crucial bridge between traditional finance and on-chain worlds, forming the infrastructure layer of the entire ecosystem. As for how much money can be made now or whether current valuations are justified, frankly, that's not their primary concern.

The bearish logic is straightforward: the profit model is too simplistic, competition will intensify, and players like Tether have already gained an absolute advantage.

Honestly, the so-called "regulatory advantage" may not necessarily build a moat in the long run. If you can achieve compliance now, well-established institutions will eventually do the same. Once compliance shifts from a scarce capability to a basic threshold, its support for company valuations will significantly decline.

My personal view is this:

If you truly believe in the future development of the crypto ecosystem, assets like stablecoins can indeed be involved logically. But there's only one premise—prices must be reasonable.

Starting from the $100 to $200 range, there are already people trying hard to promote the bullish case, as if "not getting on board will leave you behind the times." And what happened? Less than a month after opening, the price surged close to $300. The market cap of a stablecoin operator actually exceeded the scale of the stablecoins they issue and manage. This isn't based on fundamentals anymore; it's clearly driven by emotions and imagination influencing the entire pricing.

During the drop to $64, from a technical perspective, such a large decline makes a rebound quite normal. But to quickly surge back to previous highs? Honestly, I think that's unlikely. It will take more time to digest these bubbles.

Don't talk about stories claiming it can rise several times in the future. Even just returning to the previous high would require a 2-3 year cycle, assuming the crypto industry continues to develop healthily and new narratives keep emerging.

Investing has never been a test of faith. Essentially, it's a tug-of-war between price, momentum, and market expectations. Believing in a sector or a token doesn't mean you should rush in at any price.

So, from this position right now, I am not in a hurry. $BTC $ETH $SOL