This week's market highlights are quite intense—Tuesday brings the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, and Thursday will release CPI data. Let's analyze how to bottom fish or set stop-losses during this data-driven market.
First, let's talk about Non-Farm Payrolls. Due to the US government shutdown, October data was not released, and November's figures will be announced tonight. The expected unemployment rate is 4.4%, unchanged from September, but this is already the highest in a year. An increasing unemployment rate essentially signals— the economy is weakening, job opportunities are decreasing, and companies are contracting. From the Federal Reserve's perspective, this is a signal to cut interest rates, which is a positive for the market.
What about non-farm employment? The forecast is only 40,000 jobs, more than halving September's number. Fewer jobs added combined with a high unemployment rate create a resonance—both indicate the same thing: the economy needs stimulus, and the Federal Reserve needs to act.
But here’s a reminder—don't be led blindly by the data. It’s important to look at the four-hour technical chart: have the indicators adjusted properly? Has there been a breakout? If, after completing a dip on Friday and the weekend, the price hasn't broken support, then tonight and tomorrow could be good times to consider long positions at low levels, betting on market sentiment recovering if the data meets expectations.
Regarding CPI, the expected value matches the previous one, indicating that price control is effective and inflation is temporarily stable, which is exactly what the Fed wants to see. Once the non-farm data is released and meets expectations, market confidence will likely rebound significantly. With 10 days until Christmas, a rebound could indeed occur during this period.
The key points to watch are: first, whether the data ultimately meets expectations; second, whether the market can establish a trend after the release. Don't rush to go all-in; a prudent approach is to test positions at low levels and adjust based on actual market movements.
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ThesisInvestor
· 23h ago
Hmm, more data and market updates. This round is a bit intense, gotta watch the stop-loss carefully.
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NewPumpamentals
· 12-15 14:50
You really need to be cautious about this non-farm payrolls wave; the expectation of 40,000 people has been cut in half, which feels a bit uncertain.
View OriginalReply0
EthSandwichHero
· 12-15 14:50
Oh my, it's another Data Week, my heart is about to jump out of my chest.
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AlphaWhisperer
· 12-15 14:29
Another wave of data bombardment, and this time I really can't hold back... Non-farm payrolls cut by more than half, the Federal Reserve probably isn't still hesitating, right?
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TopBuyerForever
· 12-15 14:24
Damn, going all in again? I'm just asking, can I copy to the end?
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OnchainHolmes
· 12-15 14:24
Did it break the level in 4 hours? That's the key. When the data comes out, it's easy to get proven wrong.
This week's market highlights are quite intense—Tuesday brings the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, and Thursday will release CPI data. Let's analyze how to bottom fish or set stop-losses during this data-driven market.
First, let's talk about Non-Farm Payrolls. Due to the US government shutdown, October data was not released, and November's figures will be announced tonight. The expected unemployment rate is 4.4%, unchanged from September, but this is already the highest in a year. An increasing unemployment rate essentially signals— the economy is weakening, job opportunities are decreasing, and companies are contracting. From the Federal Reserve's perspective, this is a signal to cut interest rates, which is a positive for the market.
What about non-farm employment? The forecast is only 40,000 jobs, more than halving September's number. Fewer jobs added combined with a high unemployment rate create a resonance—both indicate the same thing: the economy needs stimulus, and the Federal Reserve needs to act.
But here’s a reminder—don't be led blindly by the data. It’s important to look at the four-hour technical chart: have the indicators adjusted properly? Has there been a breakout? If, after completing a dip on Friday and the weekend, the price hasn't broken support, then tonight and tomorrow could be good times to consider long positions at low levels, betting on market sentiment recovering if the data meets expectations.
Regarding CPI, the expected value matches the previous one, indicating that price control is effective and inflation is temporarily stable, which is exactly what the Fed wants to see. Once the non-farm data is released and meets expectations, market confidence will likely rebound significantly. With 10 days until Christmas, a rebound could indeed occur during this period.
The key points to watch are: first, whether the data ultimately meets expectations; second, whether the market can establish a trend after the release. Don't rush to go all-in; a prudent approach is to test positions at low levels and adjust based on actual market movements.