#美联储降息 As 2026 approaches, one thing is becoming increasingly clear—the past decade has not unfolded according to plan in any year.

The COVID-19 pandemic struck suddenly in 2020, rendering all forecasts worthless by Q1. In 2021, inflation spiraled out of control, and institutions were collectively proven wrong. How fierce was the rate hike in 2022? Unseen in 80 years, it directly stunned the market. Fast forward to 2024, with the S&P 500 rising over 20% for two consecutive years—who would have dared to bet on that back then? The start of 2025 saw the "Dawn of Liberation" turmoil, causing the biggest post-pandemic shock, followed by a surge in tariffs, only to be met with one of the fastest rebounds in history.

So, by 2026, the only certainty is—there will be surprises.

Deutsche Bank Chief Strategist Jim Reid recently put together an "Unexpected Map," listing potential positive and negative events that could influence the global situation in 2026. It looks simple, but behind it reflects a brutal logic: markets never follow the script. Preparing for sudden changes is more realistic than betting on a single forecast. Whether it's a rate cut cycle, geopolitical shocks, or technological breakthroughs, any one variable could overturn the entire landscape. Instead of obsessing over what 2026 might bring, it’s better to consider whether your investment portfolio can withstand the shocks.