Recent actions by the Federal Reserve are truly perplexing. On the surface, they frequently signal rate cuts, but the reality is far more complex.

Let's start with the policy level. Seven senior officials within the Fed are explicitly opposed to further rate cuts, which already indicates significant disagreement. Powell's recent remarks are even more ambiguous, suggesting that there may only be two rate cuts between 2026 and 2027 — far below market expectations. In other words, the Fed is not as eager to loosen policy as it appears.

Regarding inflation, the Fed's stance is relatively optimistic. They believe current inflation pressures are not the main concern, and they are more worried about the employment situation. However, there's a detail: recent US employment data showed a discrepancy of 60,000 jobs, caused by operational disruptions at the White House leading to missing statistics. This gap is expected to be gradually filled between January and February next year.

Combining these pieces of information, the Fed's attitude is quite clear — there is no explicit intention to rescue the market. The real conditions that could trigger significant action are quite specific: only if employment data declines for two to three consecutive months will they take decisive steps to stabilize the market and liquidity in cryptocurrencies. But historically, every liquidity injection has been accompanied by the risk of a hard landing for the economy. This may be the key area to watch closely in the coming period.