#加密生态动态追踪 Japan's long-term government bond yields recently surged to multi-year highs—10-year yields approaching or even breaking above 2%, and 30-year yields surpassing 3.3%. In comparison, U.S. Treasuries are still around 4%, so the jump in Japanese yields is particularly noticeable. Specifically, the 10-year government bond yield has already reached 1.95%-1.96%, a level not seen since 2007; the 30-year yield even exceeds 3.37%.

Why is this happening? The Bank of Japan has signaled a hawkish stance—likely to raise interest rates. Coupled with the Japanese government launching fiscal stimulus measures, the market has started to sell off government bonds aggressively, causing yields to spike. It may sound contradictory, but this is the market logic.

Next, there are more concerns. First, the yen faces enormous appreciation pressure. The narrowing interest rate differential means the "yen arbitrage trade" is becoming unviable—global investors previously borrowed cheap yen to invest in higher-yield assets, but now with no spread, they will have to unwind their positions and withdraw funds from Japan, leading to large-scale margin calls. The result? Japanese export companies will struggle because a stronger yen reduces competitiveness; while lower import costs are positive, the market will experience intense short-term volatility.

Even more worrying is the ripple effect on global markets. Closing arbitrage positions could trigger a domino effect—risk assets like global stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies could face selling pressure. Remember the "yen arbitrage unwind storm" in August 2024? That was a simultaneous sell-off in stocks and bonds worldwide, and this time could be no different. Domestically in Japan, stocks and bonds will both fall (Nikkei index drops, government bond prices decline), and capital will flow out of emerging markets and U.S. equities, pushing global borrowing costs higher, with U.S. Treasury yields rising passively—capital flows are a key driver of asset pricing.

Fiscal pressure will follow. Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has already exceeded 250%, and at this level, every rise in yields becomes deadly. Higher yields mean the government’s borrowing costs soar, and once caught in a "debt spiral" (higher yields → increased fiscal burden → declining market confidence → yields continue to rise), the situation can spiral out of control. The central bank is also caught in a dilemma: raising rates further risks economic collapse, while not raising rates could lead to runaway inflation and a vicious cycle of yen depreciation.

In the long term, this marks the end of the 30-year era of ultra-low interest rates—Japan is becoming a "tightening source" of global liquidity, ultimately reshaping the global asset pricing system.

What should investors do? Prepare for intense short-term volatility, improve risk management, and be cautious with leverage. Opportunities do exist—long positions in the yen and safe-haven assets like gold might profit, but stocks and other risk assets will be under pressure, possibly experiencing flash crashes or forced liquidations. The overall logic is: Japan’s monetary policy normalization is driving a reshaping of global arbitrage trades, and short-term market turbulence is inevitable. In the medium to long term, it could completely rewrite the global interest rate landscape. The impact on the crypto market will depend on where the capital ultimately reallocates.