#HasTheMarketBottomed?

📌📈📉Structured analysis of market phases and trading strategies.
🟢 I. Current state of the cryptocurrency market.
1⃣. The question of reaching the market bottom is derived from analysis of market structure, liquidity, and participant behavior. Short-term rebounds cannot be considered confirmation of a completed downtrend without corresponding structural changes.
2⃣. As of December 15, 2025, Bitcoin's dynamics show a consistent decline: $90 140.7 on December 13, $89 063.9 on December 14, and $86 780.5 on December 15 at 17:25. This sequence indicates persistent selling pressure and a lack of active demand.
3⃣. Summarizing the above analysis, it is advisable to consider the position of Chinese long-term crypto investors, who traditionally focus not on finding the minimum price but on preserving capital during market weakness.

🟡 II. Market cycle phase assessment.
1⃣. From a cyclical analysis perspective, the current market is in a decline or secondary liquidity redistribution phase. This phase is characterized by prolonged sideways ranges with a downward bias.
2⃣. Behavioral factors also do not align with a classic bottom phase. Interest in the market persists, expectations of a quick recovery remain widespread, which is not typical of the final stages of a decline.
3⃣. The absence of panic selling and simultaneous lack of aggressive buying indicate that the market has not yet completed the process of reallocation of positions among participants.

🔴 III. Practical example of premature entry.
1⃣. Some traders I communicate with made purchases $GT at higher price levels, interpreting the initial corrections as the end of the downtrend.
2⃣. At the current price of about $10.27, these positions remain at a loss, prompting owners to shift from active trading to passive waiting for the overall market recovery.
3⃣. This example demonstrates the typical risk of a bearish phase: premature entry transforms the trading strategy into holding losing positions without effective risk management.

🔵 IV. Trading strategy in current market conditions.
1⃣. Capital structure. Most funds are allocated in $GT and $GT . This approach ensures liquidity and reduces the impact of volatility on the portfolio.
2⃣. Trend filtering. Entry decisions are made solely based on analysis of higher timeframes. Short-term impulses are not considered grounds for strategy changes.
3⃣. Entry conditions. Entry is only possible when multiple factors align: stopping new lows, forming a stable price range, gradual increase in buying volumes, and decreasing selling pressure.
4⃣. Position management. Positions are opened gradually, without fully deploying capital. For each trade, an acceptable risk level and exit scenario are predetermined.
5⃣. Tactical restrictions. The strategy consciously excludes attempts to predict the local bottom, as such tactics lack statistical advantage in a bear market.

🟠 V. Conclusions.
1⃣. As of December 15, 2025, there are no structural or behavioral signs of the end of the downward cycle in the cryptocurrency market.
2⃣. The current Bitcoin price dynamics confirm the persistence of the bearish phase, not the beginning of a new upward trend.
3⃣. My answer to the question $USDT is negative. The chosen trading strategy is aimed at capital preservation, risk control, and readiness to act only after confirmation of a change in market structure.

Summarizing the above analysis, it is advisable to consider the position of Chinese long-term crypto investors, who traditionally focus not on finding the minimum price but on preserving capital during market weakness. One well-known representative of the Asian crypto community, Li Lin, an entrepreneur and investor, expressed this idea as: “The market always gives a second chance to those who managed to preserve capital in the most difficult moment.” This idea accurately reflects the current phase of the cycle, where patience, discipline, and risk management are far more valuable than attempts to prematurely identify the bottom.

Therefore, I do not prematurely determine the market bottom because it is still fluctuating.

📗📚🖋🖍 Glossary:
a#HasTheMarketBottomed? Timeframe - this is the time interval within which the price movement is displayed on the chart ) for example, 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week (. Used for analyzing the market at different scales and identifying short-, medium-, or long-term trends.
b) Volatility - this is a measure of the intensity of price fluctuations of an asset over a certain period. High volatility indicates sharp and frequent price changes, low volatility indicates relative stability of market movements.
c) Trend filtering - this is an analysis method where trading decisions are made only in the direction of the dominant market trend. The goal of trend filtering is to filter out signals that contradict the main direction of market movement and reduce the risk of false entries.
g) Sideways ranges - this is a market phase where the price moves within a limited corridor without a clearly expressed upward or downward trend. Such ranges are characterized by a balance between buyers and sellers.
ґ) Uptrend - this is a market phase where each subsequent high and low is higher than the previous one. An uptrend indicates dominance of buyers and a gradual increase in the asset's value.

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#HasTheMarketBottomed? $BTC