Good morning everyone. Today, let's break down the key market information at present and try to explain it clearly.

**BTC Current Price and Institutional Battles**

Since December 16, Bitcoin has fallen below $86,000, with a low of $85,578. From its October high of $126,000, the decline is nearly 30%. The current situation is quite interesting — retail investors and short-term traders are panicking and selling to cut losses, but big institutions are not panicking; they hold nearly 30% of the circulating BTC, and some are even accumulating on dips. This institutional support, to some extent, prevents the price from falling even further.

**Delay of Non-Farm Payroll Data and Market Expectations**

The US November non-farm payroll data, originally scheduled for release on December 5, has been postponed to tonight at 21:30 due to the government shutdown. Although the official data hasn't been released yet, unofficial data already provides a rough outline — November added 9,000 non-farm jobs, while the private sector directly lost 32,000 jobs. This signals clearly: the labor market is cooling down, and market expectations have long been quietly reshaped by these figures.

**Federal Reserve Policy Deadlock**

After the December 11 rate cut, the Fed's current interest rate range is 3.5%-3.75%. But they have explicitly stated that they are likely to pause rate cuts afterward; almost no further cuts are expected in January, and the next rate cut window might not open until March next year. Market liquidity has not increased as a result, which is a significant reason for BTC's continued pressure.

**Two Scenarios for Tonight’s Data**

If the non-farm payroll data confirms a weakening labor market, the market will bet that the Fed will need to continue cutting interest rates, and BTC might have a rebound opportunity — but only if it rises back above $90,000 to signal a genuine rebound. Conversely, if the data surprises to the upside and economic resilience is validated, the rate cut expectations will be suppressed, and the probability of BTC continuing to decline increases — even losing the critical support at $85,000 is possible.

**The True Reflection of the Spot Market**

Currently, it’s a wait-and-see situation; no one dares to act rashly. In the past 24 hours, over $500 million worth of cryptocurrencies have been liquidated across the network, mostly from leveraged long investors. BTC has been oscillating between $85,000 and $94,000, with low trading volume, and no significant new buying interest seen yet. In the short term, the trend is most likely to remain sideways, lacking a clear upward or downward direction.

Cryptocurrencies themselves are highly volatile; the above is an objective summary based on current information and should not be taken as any investment advice. How the market will move next depends on what kind of answer tonight’s data will give.