There is a chart that particularly illustrates the point—how low is the probability that an ordinary investor can pick a "dark horse" from among numerous blue-chip stocks.

The S&P 100 Index includes the top 100 companies in the US stock market. These are giants in their respective fields, large in scale, highly liquid, and financially stable, with each actively involved in derivatives markets. Even the smallest names on the bubble chart are among the top in their industries.

To precisely pick the best-performing company among these 100 top firms, such as a winner like PLTR? The chance of randomly selecting it is only 1%. It might not sound very low, but there's a trap here—the probability that you hit those declining stocks on the left is actually dozens of times higher.

The data is quite sobering. There are still dozens of companies in the S&P 100 that are currently losing money, with the worst being UNH, which has fallen by 33%. This truly reflects the reality for most retail investors: it's not that they haven't made the right choices, but that it's very easy to pick wrong.