Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve are continuing to heat up. Recent data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut has approached 90%, with some data even indicating up to 94%. This highly consistent expectation reflects market concerns about an economic slowdown.

It is worth noting that upcoming employment data may influence this outlook. In particular, the initial jobless claims, with an expected value of 220,000, could cause market sentiment fluctuations if the actual data deviates from expectations.

From a medium to long-term perspective, the market is looking for clues about the interest rate trajectory in 2026. Next Wednesday’s Federal Reserve "dot plot" will serve as a key signal. It is recommended to closely monitor these data points, as they may impact capital flows and market sentiment, thereby influencing the cryptocurrency market.