#加密生态动态追踪 Morning Market Chat

Good morning everyone. Last night's short positions indeed yielded good profits, but the recent market rhythm has been a bit hard to gauge. As soon as the US stock market opens, cryptocurrencies tend to plunge along with it—this has become a consistent pattern—like last Friday, and again this Monday, which is quite exhausting.

Recently, it appears that the large traders on a certain leading exchange have become a market indicator. When they increase long positions, the market falls; when they reduce long positions, the market rises. It seems that the big players are manipulating this individual to harvest gains. I've also heard that an insider from 1011 still holds long positions and hasn't closed them, with floating losses around 40 million yuan—probably not a comfortable situation.

Today's trading space is quite limited. The non-farm payroll data will be released at 9:30 PM. In the absence of a clear stance from the Federal Reserve on whether to cut interest rates, such major data can often cause big waves. Tonight's market will likely be turbulent and bloody.

From the perspective of US stocks, the Nasdaq and S&P both closed lower, but the decline isn't significant. However, the impact on the crypto market is amplified—the US stocks have a slight correction, and crypto prices drop sharply; if US stocks crash, crypto will be wiped out. The previous oscillation pattern in US stocks was broken during yesterday's decline, and futures are still heading downward. If tonight’s news exceeds expectations, it could lead to a waterfall decline.

Looking solely at the crypto sector, Bitcoin's major cycle has completely broken down, falling below the significant support level of 864. It is now oscillating around the support/resistance at 855. Based on current trend logic, it is highly likely to test the 820 or even 800 levels. If 800 cannot hold, it could drop directly to 740. Conversely, if 800 supports, it could be a second test, with a chance to push back toward 100,000.

For short-term signals, there are currently no strong entry points; only waiting with pending orders.

Regarding specific operations on $BTC: conservative traders might consider going long around 840 (though this is risky, the risk-reward ratio is high). If going short, a more comfortable level might be around 870. However, given the current trend, there may not be an opportunity at 870, so waiting for confirmation signals on the right side of the chart is necessary.

Ethereum's setup looks even weaker. This cycle is a textbook bearish flag pattern; once the trend line was broken last Friday, it never recovered, and it’s now compounded with a nested head and shoulders top pattern.

For trading $ETH longs, be more cautious, as Ethereum's volatility is already high, and the macro pattern is very weak.

The first support level is at 2800, and the second at 2700. Both are key swing points and just happen to be round-number levels.

More aggressive traders might consider entering small positions at the support/resistance flip around 2850, but risk control is essential.