#大户持仓变化 US Non-Farm Payrolls data drops tonight, and the global financial markets are about to "reshuffle"

At 21:30 tonight, the November employment data and retail sales statistics for the US will be announced. This not only affects the direction of gold and the US dollar but also triggers chain reactions in the crypto market with mainstream coins like BTC and ETH. Many investors don’t realize why these data are so crucial — honestly, whether the Fed raises or cuts interest rates depends on how these figures are interpreted.

First, clarify a few key numbers:

The unemployment rate and non-farm employment are the two most closely watched indicators. The November unemployment rate is expected to be around 4.4%, and non-farm employment is expected to increase by 40,000 jobs. If the job market remains strong, the Fed will have reason to stay hawkish, and rate hike expectations will intensify; conversely, if the data are weak, expectations for rate cuts will rise. Every shift in these signals can cause gold and the US dollar index to gap.

Retail sales data reflect true consumer intent. October’s data shows a month-over-month growth of only 0.1%, which is quite mild. If the actual figures fall significantly short of expectations, recession fears will spread, market risk sentiment will plummet rapidly, and risk assets like BTC will also come under pressure.

Another often overlooked indicator — wage data. November’s wage growth is expected to be 3.6% annually and 0.3% monthly. Rapid wage increases make it hard to ease inflation pressures, and the Fed may need to maintain a hawkish stance; slowing wage growth could indicate the job market is cooling down, opening the door for future policy easing.

As participants, how can you safely get through this night?

**First, don’t let yourself get stopped out.** Within 1-2 hours after the data release, gold and the dollar will experience intense volatility. Many traders prefer to hold large positions before the data, but this often triggers stop-losses. Reducing risk in advance is the most practical strategy.

**Second, focus on deviation rather than individual numbers.** Expecting a 4.4% unemployment rate, but actual figures are 4.3% or 4.5% — these aren’t big events. What truly impacts the market are numbers that significantly beat or miss expectations. And one data point isn’t enough; look at the full picture — strong employment but weak retail, for example, will make the Fed's stance uncertain and prevent extreme market reactions.

**Third, watch for changes in policy expectations.** Data itself is just a signal; the key is how the market reassesses the likelihood of rate hikes or cuts by the Fed. Pay attention to statements from Fed officials, as they will clarify what these figures imply. Sometimes, a single comment from an official can overturn the market’s interpretation of the data.

**Fourth, risk management is always the priority.** Don’t blindly open positions before the data is released; wait until the data is confirmed and key price levels are broken before entering trades. Set stop-loss orders in advance and avoid relying on luck. Many traders get wiped out because they cling to the hope that "this time will rebound."

Ultimately, during these high-volatility periods, the real test for ordinary investors isn’t the ability to make money, but to survive. Approach the data rationally, strictly follow risk management rules, and protect your principal while seizing opportunities. The Fed’s policy turning points can indeed shift the entire market landscape, but rushing in often leads to losses.