When Does the Crypto Bull Run Start? Analysts Point to Gold's Weakness as the Signal

Bitcoin could be poised for a dramatic surge to $150,000–$180,000, and crypto analyst Mario Nawfal believes the trigger is already unfolding: institutional capital is abandoning gold for digital assets. This capital rotation, if sustained, represents one of the clearest bull run catalysts we’ve seen in years.

The Gold Rally Just Hit a Wall

The precious metals market experienced a stunning reversal after months of relentless gains. Gold had climbed over 60% through 2025, fueled by U.S.-China trade uncertainties, concerns over global debt levels, and aggressive central bank purchases. The commodity reached a historic peak of $4,392 per ounce, appearing unstoppable.

But the momentum collapsed when President Trump signaled a softer stance on trade negotiations with China. On October 17, the spot price plummeted more than 2%, dropping to $4,250 per ounce. This single move erased nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization, triggering widespread profit-taking among traders who had ridden the wave higher.

Why Institutions Are Switching to Bitcoin

The timing matters enormously. According to Nawfal’s analysis, large institutional players executed a classic playbook: they accumulated and promoted gold, sold into the peak, and now they’re redirecting those proceeds into Bitcoin positions while retail remains distracted.

The technical picture supports this theory. Gold’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits above 85, a textbook overbought signal suggesting the rally has exhausted itself. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s RSI hovers near 32, indicating deeply oversold conditions—precisely the environment where smart money typically begins accumulating.

Nawfal frames the strategy bluntly: “They pumped gold to sell it high, and now they’re using that liquidity to stack BTC.” History provides a compelling precedent. When gold peaked in August 2020, Bitcoin subsequently launched from $10,000 to $60,000 within months. The parallel setup today suggests a similar explosive move could be imminent.

Price Targets and Timeline

Michael van de Poppe, another prominent market analyst, shares Nawfal’s optimism. He emphasizes that Bitcoin has historically underperformed gold during rallies but dramatically outperforms once gold’s cycle concludes. Van de Poppe projects BTC could reach $150,000–$180,000 before 2025 ends, with potential to touch $1 million within the following 1–2 years.

The immediate catalyst to watch is the October 29 FOMC meeting. This event could trigger the major capital rotation from gold into crypto assets, particularly if interest rate decisions signal a shift in monetary policy.

When the Bull Run Actually Begins

So when does the crypto bull run start in earnest? The window appears to be narrowing. With gold showing clear signs of fatigue and institutions accumulating Bitcoin at lower prices, the next major breakout could unfold in the coming weeks. The RSI divergence—overbought gold versus oversold Bitcoin—creates an asymmetric opportunity that typically attracts institutional capital flows.

The current BTC price of $86,390 reflects this transition phase. As capital rotation accelerates, expect Bitcoin to stage a substantial rally that finally justifies what many analysts have been predicting: the next major bull run in cryptocurrency.