November's Non-Farm Payrolls report is coming, and its impact on the crypto market could be greater than you imagine. This is the first official employment report after the US federal government shutdown lasted 43 days, and the entire market is using it to gauge the economic direction and policy stance.

From an economic fundamentals perspective, the signals are already clear. The Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate to possibly break through 4.5%, and Jerome Powell has openly stated that the labor market is under pressure. Employers' willingness to hire has significantly declined, the increase in new jobs is limited, and there’s even a possibility of negative growth. Workers are caught in a dilemma—companies are not hiring, but quitting also carries high risks. Especially recent graduates, more than half are facing cold recruitment prospects. What is the underlying logic behind this? Aging population combined with tightening immigration policies has led to a persistent labor shortage, and the monthly increase in new employment is inherently limited.

Turning to the crypto market, this data becomes a "double-edged sword." If the data is weak, the Fed may accelerate rate cuts, releasing dollar liquidity, and risk assets including Bitcoin could see an opportunity for gains—historically, weak non-farm data has directly driven Bitcoin to rise by 8% in a single day. But if the data exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations may be suppressed, and a stronger dollar means pressure on cryptocurrencies. Previously, strong non-farm data caused a nearly 400,000 liquidation disaster.

From a probability perspective, the downward economic pressure is evident, and the expectation of rate cuts by the Fed should become even stronger. This suggests that assets like Bitcoin may continue to rise and could serve as a boost for year-end markets. However, the market must always be cautious of "expectation gaps"—if employment data suddenly surpasses expectations, strategies should be adjusted immediately, and positions should be scaled back to avoid risks. This is the core logic of current crypto investing: it’s not about the absolute data, but about the deviation between market expectations and reality.