Will the Crypto Market Reach Its Peak in 2026? Samuel Benner and the 150-Year Chart Still Trusted

In the current market context, confused by unfavorable economic news, many investors are turning back to a more than 150-year-old predictive tool. That is the Benner Cycle—a chart developed by Samuel Benner, a farmer who suffered heavy losses during the 1873 depression. Instead of giving up, Samuel Benner spent time analyzing historical price patterns, creating a unique analytical tool. In 1875, he published the book “Business Forecasts for the Future with Fluctuations in Prices,” and since then, the Benner Cycle has become a topic of debate among investors.

Principles of the Benner Cycle

Unlike modern complex quantitative financial models, Samuel Benner based his observations on simple experiences from his agricultural background. He believed that solar cycles directly influence crop yields, which in turn affect commodity prices. From this insight, he built a forecasting system comprising three main lines:

Line A indicates years of panic—periods when the market will face crises or sharp corrections. Line B points to boom phases, when assets increase significantly in value, making it an ideal time for investors to consider selling. Line C corresponds to recession years, seen as golden opportunities to accumulate and buy at low prices.

Although modern agriculture has changed drastically since Samuel Benner’s time, his chart is still considered valuable for forecasting. According to Wealth Management Canada, while it does not predict exact years, the Benner Cycle consistently aligns with major financial events—The Great Depression of 1929, World War II, the Dot-Com bubble, or the COVID-19 crash—with only a few years’ deviation.

From History to Present: The Accuracy of Samuel Benner

Investor Panos listed the “precise surprises” that the Benner Cycle successfully predicted: not only the Great Depression but also other major economic events over the past two centuries. This helps the Benner Cycle maintain its appeal among investors, especially those who believe in recurring patterns in economic history.

According to the Benner Cycle chart, 2023 is identified as the optimal time to accumulate, and 2026 is expected to mark a major market peak. Panos emphasizes: “2023 is the best buying phase, and 2026 will be the best time to take profits.”

Crypto and Expectations for 2025-2026

In the crypto community, the Benner Cycle has become a hot topic. Retail investors use this chart to support optimistic scenarios for 2025-2026. Investor mikewho.eth predicts: “If the Benner Cycle is correct, the market top could occur around 2025, followed by a correction or recession. This could trigger speculative hype in new sectors like Crypto AI and technology before a decline.”

Search interest in the Benner Cycle on Google Trends has increased significantly over the past month, reflecting the growing demand from retail investors for optimistic stories, especially amid rising economic and political concerns.

Challenges to Belief in the Benner Cycle

However, not everyone is convinced. Recently, confidence in the Benner Cycle has been challenged by unexpected economic developments. Since President Trump announced a controversial tax plan in April, global markets have reacted negatively. On April 7, the infamous stock market crash prompted many to recall the “Black Monday” of 1987. Crypto’s total market cap dropped from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion in a single day.

JPMorgan recently raised its global recession forecast for 2025 to 60%, while Goldman Sachs also increased its recession probability to 45% over the next 12 months—highest since the pandemic. These figures contrast with the optimistic outlook suggested by the Benner Cycle.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt dismissed the reliability of this chart. He shared on X: “I’m not sure how much I should trust this. Ultimately, I just need to handle specific trades. A chart like this only distracts me rather than helps.”

Market Psychology and Self-Forcing Forces

Despite doubts, some investors remain steadfast. Crynet investor comments: “Market peak in 2026. That gives us another year if history repeats. Crazy? Sure. But remember, markets are not just numbers; they involve sentiment, memories, and momentum. And sometimes, old quirky tools work—not because they are magical, but because enough people believe they do.”

This perspective touches on an interesting phenomenon: when enough investors believe in a prophecy, collective psychology can create real market movements. Samuel Benner may not have known about crypto, but his legacy— the Benner Cycle—still influences the actions of millions of investors today.

The big question remains: will the Benner Cycle continue to prove its worth in the 21st century, or is it merely a market psychology illusion? Only time will tell.