#大户持仓变化 Non-Farm Night Attack: Gold Market Divergence Moment, Is Your Defense Ready?

Tonight, the Non-Farm Employment Change data will be released, which could be the most market-moving factor recently. Precious metals and cryptocurrencies are both waiting for this moment; risk control is the top priority.

**Routine Strategies Before Data Release**

The market generally expects a "weak employment + resilient wages" combo this time. Specifically: November added only 50,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.4%, a relatively high level, but the annualized average hourly wage remains at 3.6%, with a monthly increase of 0.3%, indicating wages are not that loose.

How will this expected combo play out? Simply put, the market will price in the Federal Reserve's easing bias in advance, which supports gold. From a technical perspective, as long as gold does not break below the 4260 support line, it will attempt to test resistance levels like 4300 and 4320. Before the data release, the range-bound, slightly bullish oscillation will continue, but with limited volatility.

**After the Data Release: Three Scenarios**

**Scenario A: Data Below Expectations (Favorable for Gold)**
Non-Farm Jobs <50,000 or Unemployment Rate >4.4%, indicating the employment market is indeed struggling. In this case, easing expectations will heat up again, and gold may break through resistance at 4300 and 4320, pushing higher. If wages also underperform (annual rate <3.6%, monthly <0.3%), inflation pressure will further ease, reinforcing easing speculation, and gold's upside potential will open up.

**Scenario B: Data Above Expectations (Unfavorable for Gold)**
Better-than-expected employment data or unemployment rate below 4.4% reflects strong employment resilience, possibly causing the Fed to slow down rate cuts. Gold will face pressure, potentially breaking below the 4260 support, testing levels like 4240 and 4220. If wage data also exceeds expectations, market concerns about persistent inflation will intensify, putting further downward pressure on gold.

**Scenario C: Data Meets Expectations**
The market may not be as exciting. Gold is likely to stay within the 4260-4320 range, with reduced volatility, and we will need to wait for new fundamental signals.

**Final Reminder**

Non-Farm Night can be highly volatile. Remember to lock in positions and prioritize defense. $BTC $ETH will also resonate with this data wave, so stay alert.

Risk Warning: Market expectations can change, and actual data may surprise. Proper stop-loss measures are the top priority.