Recently, I have been repeatedly analyzing Ethereum's trend. Honestly, from a long-term perspective, I remain somewhat bearish. However, this has little to do with technical fundamentals; the real pressure comes from macroeconomic factors.

Let's discuss the first hidden risk — Yen rate hikes. Once Japan actually initiates an interest rate hike cycle, carry trades will accelerate their return, and risk assets worldwide will be the first to be drained. In the crypto market, the impact will be most evident.

Now, consider the second risk point. After the actual implementation of rate cuts, the market is prone to emotional reversal. Currently, everyone is preemptively speculating on easing expectations. When the policy is actually enacted, it may lead to a "sell the news" scenario, causing risk appetite to decline. This will definitely suppress high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

In this macro context, ETH is unlikely to have an independent rally. Even if it rebounds, it will be more like technical correction rather than a genuine reversal.

Regarding operational strategy, my suggestion is not to hold a heavy position in longs. For the long term, maintain a defensive stance, observe more and act less. Take advantage of high points to reduce positions when opportunities arise. Wait until macro conditions truly improve and liquidity environments recover before considering re-positioning. At this point in time, stability should be the priority.