The Bank of Japan's move to raise interest rates by 0.25 basis points to 0.75% will indeed cause short-term market tension. Liquidity tightening in the short term is inevitable, and operational pace needs to be more cautious. But ultimately, the dominant power in the global financial markets still lies with the Federal Reserve—this is unavoidable for everyone.

A look at history makes this clear. In March 2024, Japan eliminated negative interest rates; by July, it raised rates to 0.25%; and by January 2025, it pushed rates to 0.5%. During the one or two months before and after these three rate hikes, BTC did not experience significant declines. Why? Ultimately, BTC's size within the global financial system is too small. The biggest impact of Japan's rate hikes is to force leveraged traders borrowing in yen to liquidate, but the influence of such activities is too limited.

However, two risk points need attention. One is Japan being forced to accelerate tightening due to circumstances, such as uncontrolled yen exchange rates or a sudden worsening of inflation, which would compel the central bank to continue aggressive measures; the other is a scenario where Japan's rate hikes coincide with aggressive tightening by the US—this double-whammy could really scare the market. As long as the Federal Reserve doesn't suddenly turn hawkish, Japan alone cannot stir up a big wave.

On-chain data also supports this judgment. Currently, the main activity is short-term capitulation, and retail investors caught at high levels are not under much pressure to sell. In comparison, institutional actions are more noteworthy—MicroStrategy bought another 10,645 BTC last week, worth nearly $980 million. Over the past two weeks, it has been continuously accumulating over 10,000 BTC, with a total holding exceeding 670,000 BTC. This level of accumulation demonstrates strong institutional confidence in the long term. MicroStrategy is also increasing its ETH holdings, with a scale of 100,000 ETH at an average cost of $3,906, despite a current unrealized loss of $3 billion. Their continued buying indicates they are still focused on long-term logic.

This week, three key data points should be closely watched. The non-farm payroll report on Tuesday will directly influence the Fed's subsequent policy stance. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.4%. The level of this number will ultimately determine the pace of liquidity shifts.