Benner's cycle in cryptocurrencies: how to anticipate market movements before they occur

Crypto traders know well that markets do not behave randomly. Bitcoin rises, then crashes. Ethereum follows a similar trend. However, these cyclical movements are not new. What is new is that a forgotten analytical framework from nearly 150 years ago – the Benner cycle – proves remarkably relevant for anticipating these variations. But who was Samuel Benner really, and why do his observations remain so valid in 2025?

From a bankrupt farmer to a financial markets theorist

Samuel Benner was not a trained economist or a Wall Street trader. He was a 19th-century farmer and entrepreneur who experienced financial rise and fall multiple times. After losing significant capital due to economic crises and poor harvests, he asked himself a simple question: do these financial disasters actually follow a pattern?

By analyzing the economic data of his time, especially those concerning agricultural commodity prices – iron, corn, pork – Benner discovered something surprising. Boom and bust cycles did not occur randomly. They followed a predictable periodicity. This revelation transformed his perception of markets and led him to formalize his findings.

The publication that changed market perception

In 1875, Benner published “Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices,” a work outlining his revolutionary theory: financial markets follow approximately 18 to 20-year cycles. This discovery, based on meticulous observation of human behavior and economic factors, was largely ignored by the academic establishment of the time.

Yet, time would prove him right. Modern traders and strategic investors have gradually recognized the validity of his framework, notably understanding that emotional extremes – euphoria and panic – are the main drivers of market movements.

The core of the Benner cycle: three key years

The cycle identified by Benner consists of three distinct phases, each offering specific opportunities and risks:

“A” Years – Financial panic years
Every 18 to 20 years, markets experience massive crashes or violent corrections. Benner predicted these years included 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and projected forward to 2035 and 2053. Notably, in 2019, the correction in the cryptocurrency and stock markets validated this prediction, with a significant price drop followed by recovery.

“B” Years – Peak and strategic selling phases
Before each crash, prices reach euphoric levels. These are ideal years to realize gains. The years 1926, 1945, 1962, 1980, 2007, and 2026 correspond to these inflated valuation periods. It’s the time when savvy traders reduce their risk exposure.

“C” Years – Opportunistic lows for buying
After panics come contraction periods. Prices collapse, but opportunities arise. 1931, 1942, 1958, 1985, 2012, and subsequent years of the cycle are marked by cheap assets. It’s the moment to accumulate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other long-term positions.

Why the Benner cycle resonates with cryptocurrency markets

Although digital and innovative, cryptocurrencies are not immune to the psychological cycles that have governed markets for centuries. On the contrary, crypto market volatility amplifies these cycles. Bitcoin, for example, follows a four-year halving cycle that itself generates periods of cyclical rises and corrections.

Traders observing the crypto market easily recognize patterns of the Benner cycle. Speculative bubbles (years “B”), panic corrections (years “A”), and strategic accumulations (years “C”) repeat with astonishing predictability. Ignoring this framework is truly giving up a significant analytical advantage.

Practical application for crypto traders

During bull markets (years “B”)
Traders should use these euphoric periods to secure gains. Partial selling at cyclical peaks allows locking in profits before the predictable correction.

During bear markets (years “C”)
Instead of panicking, savvy investors accumulate positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other promising assets at depressed prices. The cycle suggests these lows offer the best long-term entry opportunities.

The psychology behind the cycle
The true strength of the Benner cycle lies in its grounding in human psychology. Collective euphoria drives prices beyond reason, creating peaks. Collective fear causes crashes. These emotions transcend centuries and markets – from 19th-century agricultural commodities to 21st-century cryptocurrencies.

Benner’s legacy: a timeless tool

Samuel Benner never envisioned that his observations on pork and corn markets would be applied to Bitcoin or Ethereum. Yet, his fundamental insight remains valid: financial markets follow predictable patterns.

To navigate the crypto universe effectively, modern traders should seriously consider the Benner cycle as a complement to their strategy. By combining technical analysis, behavioral finance, and the 19th-century cyclical framework, investors can develop a robust approach capable of capturing both opportunities at emotional lows and peaks of euphoria.

Time has validated Samuel Benner. It’s up to us to capitalize on his discoveries.