#美联储降息 The numbers on Polymarket are speaking— the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December has surged to 96%, and the "hold steady" option has been pushed down to just 3%.

With only 3 days until the December 19th rate decision, the market has essentially "sentenced" the BOJ's decision. Behind these seemingly crazy numbers is a collective interpretation by global crypto traders of recent economic signals.

Honestly, the BOJ has been a "staple" in the global rate-cutting camp for years, maintaining low interest rates for a long time. Now, with the market daring to push the rate hike expectation close to full, it indicates that the recent economic outlook has become clear enough. When the market speaks with a 96% probability, it’s no longer just about betting odds but a pre-emptive risk signal.

The question is, once this expectation is realized, what will happen in the short term? Yen appreciation and volatility in the Japanese stock market are guaranteed to follow. The few trading days before and after the rate decision are the real points of interest—within these moments of price movement, there are often many short-term trading opportunities.

Instead of waiting for the decision to be announced and reacting afterward, it’s better to lock in the key asset trends in advance and find the rhythm amid volatility. $ETH