Tonight's non-farm payroll data will be released, and this number will directly influence the Federal Reserve's next policy direction, which is also significant for the crypto market.

Logically, if the employment data shows weakness, market expectations for continued rate cuts by the Fed will intensify, and the liquidity environment will improve, which is generally positive for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). Conversely, strong data will dampen rate cut expectations, and risk assets may continue to be under pressure. From another perspective, this report is somewhat the "last shot" in determining the short-term sentiment of the crypto market.

Another variable that cannot be ignored is the Bank of Japan's rate hike pressure. Historical experience tells us that whenever Japan tightens monetary policy and the yen appreciates, Bitcoin often experiences a significant pullback. Yesterday, BTC quickly retreated to around $85,000, reflecting this concern. Coupled with the fact that liquidity tends to be tight at the end of the year, if the rebound cannot hold above key support levels, the subsequent volatility risk is indeed worth paying attention to.

The trends of major coins like ETH, ZEC, and others are also following this overarching logic. This night could be the true starting point of the year-end rally, or it could be an important cooling-off of sentiment. The answer won't take too long.