On the night of US economic data releases, why do retail investors always get wiped out?

When non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data are released, the crypto market starts to fluctuate wildly. Most retail investors think this is the market’s true reaction, but they’ve already gone in the wrong direction — the trend was set before the data was announced.

How do institutions and top traders make money? Not by watching the news, but through informational advantages and pre-positioning. They have already built their positions before the data is released. When extreme volatility occurs, the stop-loss orders of follow-the-market retail investors become their liquidity pool. This is not conspiracy theory, but an objective market law.

What truly determines the subsequent trend? The average hourly earnings data. This indicator directly influences the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rate hikes. Once rate hike expectations strengthen, global liquidity will contract significantly, and cryptocurrencies, as risk assets, will be hit first. Meanwhile, retail investors are still debating whether the unemployment rate is 4.4% or 4.5%, but in reality, they have already lost on the cognitive level.

Three points retail investors need to know:

**First, abandon guessing the data.** You are always at the end of the information chain, using speculation to oppose institutional data models, with almost zero chance of winning.

**Second, observe the lead time.** The market has already surged significantly before the data is released? That’s probably because good news has already been digested; be cautious of a reverse correction next.

**Third, stay patient.** Market opportunities are continuous; there’s no need to act during high volatility periods. Calm and measured actions often outperform urgent reactions.

Understanding on-chain capital flows and tracking the true intentions of major players is the right way to survive in this market.