#大户持仓变化 BTC hourly chart is signaling. After so many years of trading, I have to be honest: the current situation is uncomfortable, but every time things feel uneasy, real opportunities are just waiting there.

Let's look at the technical side first. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, the price is winding below, and the MACD's DIF and DEA are being tightly pressed by the zero line—this is a classic bearish pattern. However, a closer look reveals that the green histogram bars are getting shorter. What does this mean? The bearish momentum is easing, and the bulls are accumulating strength at the bottom. The key level to watch is 85,000; it’s not only a support level but also the dividing line between bulls and bears.

The on-chain situation is even more interesting. Recently, the distribution of large holdings in the market has shown subtle movements. Major holders seem to be quietly adjusting their positions, which usually indicates that something is about to happen—perhaps an accelerated decline or a rebound. Coupled with recent frequent regulatory news, the market is indeed in a panic, but history tells us that the true turning points often occur at the depths of panic.

Sharing my own view: In the short term, $BTC indeed faces downside risk, and it’s highly likely to test 85,000. But if it can hold that level, the rebound space will open up quickly. I remain calm—neither overly optimistic nor numb from pessimism. The market always rewards patient and rational people. Until the trend reverses, my strategy is to observe and wait; once the signals are clear, it’s time to act.

Trading is like that—only opportunities within your understanding are worth participating in. $BTC