#美联储降息 Non-farm payroll data causes disruption again—employment market slows down

Tuesday night at 9:30 PM, the US November non-farm payroll report was officially released. This report summarizes the complete data for November and partial revisions for October.

The market initially expected the strong momentum from September to continue—when 119,000 new jobs were added, it looked promising. But reality often disappoints. Economists generally expect this impressive number to be revised downward, as a rebound in employment growth is usually difficult to sustain.

What’s more concerning is that the labor market now appears to be in a "frozen" state: companies are neither significantly hiring nor rushing to lay off workers, and overall market activity has noticeably declined. Compared to the beginning of the year, current personnel movement has already cooled considerably.

**How much have the data been overestimated?**

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently revealed the truth—since April, official monthly figures may have overestimated about 60,000 jobs. In other words, the impressive-looking numbers on paper might contain quite a bit of water. An even more extreme speculation is that job creation has already turned negative, and the point at which companies actually start layoffs may have arrived.

This kind of statistical bias is common at labor market turning points, but when it indicates a potential "snowballing" of layoffs, it must be taken seriously.

**What is the Federal Reserve waiting for?**

The answer is: the unemployment rate. The official stance is that 4.7% is a critical threshold—once this level is surpassed, it could push for further rate cuts in 2026.

Currently, the expectation is that the unemployment rate may peak at 4.5% early in the year, with the labor market remaining under pressure in the first half. But as some headwinds gradually dissipate, a mild recovery is expected in the second half. Whether the employment market can truly "turn around" in 2026 still depends on whether these risks will materialize.