Tonight's non-farm payroll data has the market on the edge of a breaking point.

Looking at the consensus expectations from various institutions, we see: the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.4%, and non-farm job gains are around 50,000. It sounds like nothing major, but the real killer isn't in these numbers themselves.

The key issue is—current liquidity is extremely scarce.

Market depth is severely lacking, and leverage is piled up in every corner. Once the data turns truly bearish, BTC won't just undergo a mild correction; it could very well crash in a rapid, stall-like manner. This isn't a technical adjustment but forced liquidations and liquidations.

So the most ideal scenario is actually quite boring: the data is neither particularly good nor particularly bad. Just a calm, uneventful pass.

But that's not the most heartbreaking part. Tonight, not only will November's data be released, but the missing October data will also be supplemented. One wave of volatility isn't enough—you'll have to go through two. Market sentiment can easily be amplified wave after wave.

Currently, both the US stock market and the crypto space are betting on the same expectation: a soft landing. The economy will slow down but won't collapse, and the Federal Reserve is willing to continue providing liquidity. This is the story the market wants.

BTC already paid its tuition last night. After falling below 86k and rebounding to around 88k, the entire network experienced over $500 million in liquidations in one go. Many people's leverage was directly blown out.

The logic behind this decline isn't hard to understand: the bullish leverage was exaggerated, and combined with risk-averse sentiment before the data, these two factors triggered the crash.

But from an on-chain perspective, the situation isn't as grim as imagined. Long-term holders' selling pressure remains manageable, and institutional investors like BlackRock are still buying in the correction zone.

If tonight's data doesn't show major issues, a classic "sell the expectations, buy the facts" scenario is likely to unfold. When the market fears intensify, it dumps aggressively; once the data is released and shows no problem, it quickly reverses and goes long.

According to this logic, BTC's short-term rebound space is still in the 92k to 95k range.

But what’s most unsettling is—I look at the market again, and the bulls are starting to leverage up again. This is very dangerous.

If the data remains mild and flat, these leverages will be fuel, continuing to push prices higher. But if the data explodes with bad news, this pile of leverage becomes a fuse, potentially triggering chain reactions of liquidations.

To put it plainly, tonight isn't about choosing a direction. The core issue is—under such a narrow liquidity environment, who will be the first to get liquidated? The bulls or the bears? Will big funds eat retail traders, or will unexpected events cause everyone to suffer losses?

Be prepared; it could be very turbulent.