Is the Benner Cycle Still Reliable? What Will the Crypto Market Look Like in 2025–2026?

Question

When the global economy is unstable, retail investors are turning back to an ancient forecasting tool—Benner Cycles. This 150-year-old chart is becoming a hot topic in the crypto market discussions, especially as many expect a market peak to occur in 2025–2026. But does history really repeat itself?

From Farm to Market: Benner and His Predictions

The story of the Benner Cycle begins with a loss. In 1873, Samuel Benner—a farmer—experienced a severe financial crisis. Instead of just enduring, he decided to investigate. Benner started studying agricultural price cycles, and in 1875, he published the book “Business Forecasts of the Future with Fluctuations in Prices”—where the Benner Cycle was first introduced.

Not relying on complex mathematical models, Benner used his own agricultural experience. He believed that solar cycles affected crop yields, which in turn influenced commodity prices. From this observation, he built a forecasting framework consisting of three factors:

Line A: Year of panic
Line B: Year of boom—an ideal time to sell assets
Line C: Year of recession—an opportunity to buy

Although modern agriculture has advanced significantly over 150 years, Benner mapped his predictions to 2059. Notably: the Benner cycle does not predict exact years but tends to align with major financial events—The Great Depression of 1929, World War II, the Dot-Com bubble—with errors of only a few years.

Why Do Crypto Investors Trust Benner?

Recent predictors have pointed out that the Benner Cycle has “predicted” many major events: from large economic crises to COVID-19 collapses. Last month, Google Trends showed that searches for “Benner Cycle” reached unprecedented highs, reflecting retail investors’ optimistic outlook.

Specifically, the trend indicates: 2023 is an ideal buying year, while 2026 will be the next major market peak. Many crypto traders have widely circulated this chart, using it to support an optimistic scenario for 2025–2026.

“The Benner cycle suggests a market top around 2025, followed by correction or recession. If true, the hype around Crypto AI and emerging technologies could surge in 2024–2025 before cooling off,” an investor analyzed.

Market Reality Challenges Benner

However, recent economic developments are testing the faith in this ancient forecast. In early April, global policy shifts caused a shock. The crypto market reacted violently—total market capitalization dropped from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion in a single day. Some even called April 7th the “Dark Monday” due to stock market crashes.

The economic outlook remains bleak. JPMorgan recently increased the likelihood of a global recession in 2025 to 60%, while Goldman Sachs raised the recession forecast to 45%—the highest since the post-pandemic period. These figures starkly contradict the optimistic outlook of the Benner Cycle.

Two Perspectives

Not everyone trusts Benner. Peter Brandt—a veteran trader—criticized this chart directly on social media: “This kind of chart floats in dreamland. I can’t use it to decide when to enter or exit the market, so it’s just a distraction for me.”

Conversely, some investors remain steadfast. “Market peak in 2026. It gives us one more year. Sounds crazy? Sure. But remember: markets are not just numbers; they involve psychology, memory, and momentum. Sometimes those quirky tools work—not because of magic, but because enough people believe in them,” argued an investor.

Conclusion: Is Benner a Compass for Investors?

The Benner Cycle remains a controversial tool. In the current uncertain context, confidence in this forecast is eroding due to unpredictable economic events. However, the ongoing search for Benner indicates that retail investors are still seeking a framework for guidance—even if it’s from 150 years ago.

The real lesson perhaps isn’t whether Benner is right or wrong, but the awareness that markets, despite being influenced by economic data, are heavily driven by collective psychology and expectations.