US employment data just released, and market reactions are mixed. The unemployment rate soared to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, which startled the market—expectations were only 4.5%. This indicates that the labor market is indeed cooling down, which is not good news.

On the other hand, non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, slightly exceeding the 50,000 expectation. So the data itself is somewhat contradictory—bad news and good news mixed together.

What does this mean for the market? The unemployment rate continues to rise, which could drag down consumer spending power. Companies may also be less eager to invest, increasing the risk of an economic recession. This is definitely not favorable for market confidence.

Conversely, weak employment data has given a boost to expectations of interest rate cuts. After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in January next year jumped from 22% to 31%. Loose monetary policy is coming, the dollar may weaken, and funds might shift into high-volatility assets like Bitcoin. Historically, during similar economic downturns, Bitcoin has risen by 5% within 48 hours.

For the crypto market, the short-term outlook is more positive—rising expectations of rate cuts mean dollar depreciation, and high-risk assets will attract capital again. But don’t get too optimistic; the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern is always present, so be cautious of short-term volatility risks.