After the November non-farm payroll data was released, the market immediately responded. The addition of 64,000 jobs indeed exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% was still somewhat surprising. More notably, the data for the first two months was significantly revised downward, with October's figures dropping by 105,000, reflecting that the actual US labor market may be more fragile than the surface numbers suggest.

From the perspective of Federal Reserve policy expectations, this set of data has given the market plenty of room for imagination. Currently, the market's expectation for a rate cut in January 2025 has risen to 31%, and for the whole year, the easing tone is basically confirmed—it's expected that there will be two more rate cuts in 2026, totaling approximately 58 basis points. The formation of this expectation chain indicates that market confidence in liquidity easing is strengthening.

Policy signals are also being released. The latest statement from the US Treasury suggests that the Federal Reserve should remain open-minded, while expecting inflation to fall significantly next year. Coupled with the ongoing trillion-dollar tax rebate plan, each household is expected to receive a subsidy of $1,000-$2,000, further reinforcing the easing expectations.

The macro environment is shifting—weak employment, rising expectations of rate cuts, and improved liquidity conditions. These signals will impact market liquidity and the attractiveness of risk assets, and subsequent policy developments warrant ongoing attention.