#美联储降息 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Tonight's non-farm payroll data will become a key turning point in the recent market. This report not only influences the Federal Reserve's policy direction but also directly impacts global capital flows.

Two possible scenarios are intertwined—if employment data shows weakness, expectations for rate cuts will resurface, and funds from traditional finance may seek risk assets for safe haven, potentially bringing new capital into the crypto market; but if the data exceeds expectations, tightening expectations will continue, and the market will face greater adjustment pressure.

Currently, there is also a hidden risk: the Bank of Japan's rate hike cycle is still ongoing. This process itself is draining global liquidity. Last night, BTC dropped to around 86,000, and market resilience is weakening. Looking at this year's trend, each BOJ rate hike causes short-term price shocks, and as the year-end approaches—a period of tight funds—breaking through the 95,000 mark may become somewhat difficult.

🔍 In the short term, there is support below 80,000 but it may be tested again. 🔍 From a longer perspective, institutional allocation cycles are still ongoing, and the market's ultimate expectation of breaking through 200,000 has not changed—only the timing and path remain uncertain.

This non-farm payroll report could be the catalyst for a year-end rebound or a turning point that douses the rally. Share your observations in the comments.