ZCash's Fair Value Gap Could Trigger Sharp Pullback Below $100: Technical Setup Suggests Deeper Correction Ahead

ZCash has recently captured significant market attention following its dramatic ascent from approximately $46 in late September to peaks near $750 in early November—a roughly 1,500% movement that jolted dormant traders back into action. However, beneath this parabolic surge lies a concerning technical pattern that suggests the rally may be reaching its breaking point.

The Fair Value Gap Warning Signal

At the core of bearish sentiment lies an unfilled Fair Value Gap (FVG) on higher time frames, a concept that has gained prominence among technical analysts studying ZEC’s price structure. Fair Value Gaps function as price magnets—areas where supply and demand imbalances eventually pull prices back to resolve the inefficiency. According to several chart-focused traders monitoring ZEC, this unfilled gap suggests unfinished business in the lower price zones, potentially establishing support levels around $40-$100.

This isn’t merely theoretical speculation. The Fair Value Gap framework has historically proved effective in identifying where price action tends to consolidate or reverse. With ZEC currently trading near $411.25 (data as of December 16, 2025), the question becomes whether the current pullback will stabilize here or continue testing lower levels where the Fair Value Gap sits waiting.

Crypto Patel’s Technical Case for Sub-$100 Levels

Chart analyst Crypto Patel articulated a compelling technical thesis on this matter. His assessment centers on recognizing the difference between euphoric momentum and sustainable price discovery. Patel cautioned that despite recent strength, the probability of ZEC revisiting the $100 level—or even deeper into the $40-$100 range—remains elevated.

The reasoning hinges on several technical observations: First, ZCash’s breakout occurred from a multi-year consolidation zone, representing years of quiet accumulation. While this accumulation phase preceded the explosive move, it also represents an area where “smart money” typically begins distributing profits rather than accumulating further. Second, the extended Fair Value Gap creates a structural vulnerability, suggesting price must eventually return to fill this imbalance.

Patel’s broader point emphasizes the danger of emotional decision-making. A 1,500% rally naturally breeds overconfidence, but history shows that parabolic moves often retrace 50-70% before establishing genuine support. For holders who acquired ZEC during the low $40s, even a decline to $100 still preserves substantial profits—yet many traders entering at higher levels could face significant losses.

The Psychology of Correction Cycles

Beyond pure technicals, Patel highlighted trader psychology as a secondary but equally powerful factor. Euphoria during parabolic rallies typically precedes profit-booking phases. Once ZEC climbed past $500, those who accumulated during the $46-$100 range face a critical decision: secure gains or chase further upside. Historically, the former tends to overwhelm the latter, triggering cascading liquidations and forced selling.

The pattern mirrors historical precedent. When Solana experienced its powerful 2024 recovery, similar rallies preceded sharp 30-50% drawdowns before establishing new higher lows. ZCash, being historically more volatile than SOL, could exhibit even more dramatic swings during correction phases.

Contextualizing ZCash’s Current Position

Privacy coins have consistently demonstrated unpredictable price action relative to broader market movements. ZCash itself holds ATH (all-time high) of $3,190, making current levels look significantly discounted on a long-term chart despite the recent explosive gain.

The Fair Value Gap concept becomes increasingly relevant when viewed against this historical backdrop. Unfilled gaps across multiple timeframes create layered selling pressure—each level representing a previous inefficiency waiting to be resolved. For ZCash, this could mean multiple consolidation zones between current prices and the $100 level, making any downside move gradual rather than instantaneous.

What Traders Should Monitor

The key technical level to watch remains that unfilled Fair Value Gap. If ZEC holds above $200, it suggests accumulation interest persists. However, breaks below $150 would likely accelerate the decline toward the $100 zone. Similarly, monitoring on-chain transfer activity could reveal whether large holders are positioning for further upside or preparing to exit.

Patel’s overall message distills to this: patience and discipline reward traders far more than chasing momentum. Whether ZEC ultimately corrects to $100 or finds support at higher levels, the critical skill lies in distinguishing between scalping opportunities (which remain viable during pullbacks) and long-term position holding (which currently carries elevated risks above the $500 threshold).

The market’s structure suggests a correction phase is likely—the question is merely one of timing and magnitude, not fundamental direction.