When Will Crypto Bounce Back? Wintermute Says It Depends on ETF and DAT Revival

The crypto market faces an interesting paradox: while central banks are slashing interest rates and liquidity is flooding into traditional markets, digital assets remain on the sidelines. A recent Wintermute analysis reveals that despite global monetary expansion, new capital is flowing everywhere except crypto — stocks, AI sectors, and prediction markets are capturing investor attention instead.

The Real Problem: Capital Going Everywhere But Crypto

Here’s what’s happening. Even as stablecoin supplies grow and quantitative tightening ends globally, the crypto ecosystem isn’t seeing corresponding price action. Money is rotating into equities and AI-related plays, leaving digital assets struggling to keep pace. The disconnect suggests that simply having more liquidity available doesn’t automatically mean crypto will benefit.

Halving Cycles Are Dead — Liquidity Rules Now

Forget the traditional Bitcoin four-year cycle narrative tied to mining halvings. Wintermute’s report argues that this outdated framework no longer explains market movements. Instead, macro liquidity conditions and institutional capital flows have become the true price drivers. When institutions allocate capital and liquidity expands into crypto channels, prices respond. When it doesn’t, even fundamental supply dynamics fail to generate upside.

Market Health Is Fine, But Recovery Depends on Capital Return

The good news? Market structure remains solid. Leverage is down, volatility is controlled, and institutional participation hasn’t disappeared. The bad news? Without renewed inflows, crypto will continue underperforming. The recovery depends critically on two factors: a resurgence in U.S. and Asian ETF demand and increased activity in Decentralized Asset Tokens (DATs).

The Bottom Line: ETF and DAT Inflows Are Non-Negotiable

Wintermute’s conclusion is straightforward — crypto’s next rally depends on whether capital flows back into established ETF vehicles and emerging DAT protocols. Until that happens, digital assets may remain sidelined while traditional markets and AI stocks dominate investor flows. The cycle isn’t broken; it’s just waiting for liquidity to return.