Bitcoin at Critical Juncture: Why Lyn Alden Sees Recovery Before Major Pullback

The Current Landscape: Price Correction Without Panic

Bitcoin has recently retreated from its October 5 peak of $126.08K, currently trading around $87.23K after experiencing a significant 7.48% decline over the past month. While the slide appears concerning on the surface, macroeconomist Lyn Alden suggests this pullback differs fundamentally from the capitulation events that typically define market bottoms.

Lyn Alden’s Case Against Imminent Crash

In an appearance on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast, Alden articulated a counterintuitive thesis: the cryptocurrency market has not yet entered the frenzy phase that historically precedes major sell-offs. She contends that without reaching irrational exuberance levels, the conditions simply don’t align for the kind of devastating capitulation that investors fear.

A critical distinction Alden makes involves the market’s structural evolution. The crypto cycle, she argues, has decoupled from the predictable four-year halving schedule that once dominated narrative. Instead, macroeconomic conditions and genuine institutional interest now drive price action. This shift means traditional cycle theories may require reimagining.

Divergent Forecasts Create Market Uncertainty

Not all analysts share Alden’s optimistic stance. Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, recently warned Cointelegraph that Bitcoin faces potential 65% to 70% retracement over the next two years—a scenario vastly more severe than Alden’s projections.

Psychology of Market Expectations

Alden emphasizes that market outcomes rarely match investor narratives, whether bullish or bearish. Both optimism and pessimism tend toward extremes. She cautions against complacency during bull runs, noting that sustained rallies require constant justification and renewed institutional adoption.

What Comes Next: The Path to New Heights

Alden forecasts Bitcoin will reclaim the $100K threshold in 2026, potentially setting new all-time highs by 2026 or 2027. This timeline assumes the current correction represents consolidation rather than the beginning of prolonged weakness—a scenario that hinges on whether macroeconomic tailwinds continue supporting risk assets.