#美国非农就业数据表现强劲 Why Short Selling Is Most Likely to Turn You into a Newbie

Recently, meme coins like $PIPPIN, $JELLYJELLY, and $BEAT have surged dozens of times. Seeing friends trapped in these positions, have you ever thought—rather than stubbornly holding a short position, why not close it and go long? Maybe not only can you get out of the trap, but you might also profit from the trend.

What I want to say is that quitting the short-selling mindset is truly the key step to avoiding being "cut" like a leek. Now, let me sit down and talk to you about this.

**The Profit Ceiling Issue**
Going long has no upper limit. If a coin rises from $1 to $100, you earn 100 times the profit. But what about shorting? No matter how you short, if a coin drops from $100 to $0, your maximum gain is 100%.

Calculating this from the expected value (EV)—the upside of going long is unlimited, while the downside of shorting is capped at 100%. This clearly shows that, from a mathematical perspective, the odds of going long are inherently more favorable.

**Value Discovery vs. Value Denial**
This is the most fundamental difference. Going long is about discovering the value of a project. Maybe its fundamentals are solid, or positive news has emerged, and market sentiment improves—your entry at this point is justified and based on conviction.

Shorting, on the other hand, is about denying a coin’s value. But the problem is, everyone has their own preferences. You might think this coin has no value, but others might see it as having some hidden utility. Often, denying something is much easier than affirming it—that’s a survival instinct passed down from our ancestors, an innate risk-avoidance awareness.

Look at those who go long: once they have conviction, external disturbances can’t shake them—they can hold their position. But short sellers? A sudden news event or a prominent influencer’s analysis can cause doubt, and they start panicking, thinking, "Maybe this coin really has value," and in the next second, they hurriedly close their position in panic.

**Learning Curve and Cognitive Accumulation**
Going long forces you to constantly discover new projects and research new opportunities. During this process, you learn more about project selection, market cycles, and emotional game theory. Your cognition keeps upgrading.

Shorting is different. You only need to deny, without needing a deep understanding of the value chain. In the long run, those who go long tend to accumulate more experience and insight than short sellers.

**Emotions Are the Invisible Killers**
Long traders habitually affirm things, tending to be optimistic and positive. Short sellers live in constant denial, and their emotions can become irritable and repressive.

Think about it—being in these two emotional states for a long time, which mindset is more conducive to trading decisions? Those with good mental states are more rational and better at risk management; those with bad mental states tend to be impulsive and prone to liquidation.

**Final Words**
The characteristics I’ve described generally apply to most people. Of course, there are a few extremely skilled short sellers, but for retail traders like us, it’s important to clearly understand—are the odds in favor of the longs or the shorts?

This is something you need to figure out for yourself.