CPI countdown: Watch more, do less, wait for the bottom-fishing opportunity

Hot News |

1. December 18th at 21:30 US November Unadjusted CPI Year-over-Year Release

2. December 18th at 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 13( thousand)

Recap: On Tuesday (December 16th), local time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report stating that US non-farm employment in November was slightly above expectations. The Federal Reserve will hold its first policy meeting of 2026 in January next year. The market generally expects that the probability of the Fed continuing to cut interest rates is low. After the non-farm data was released, Bitcoin quickly fell, dropping to around 86,000, while Ethereum dipped to 2880.

The pattern of every Monday decline was once again confirmed. Yesterday, Bitcoin also rebounded from the support level I provided, but then quickly fell again at the higher resistance level, further indicating that overall market liquidity remains very weak. In the previous article, Tommy emphasized that before Thursday’s CPI and Friday’s Bank of Japan rate hike announcement, market funds tend to hedge risk in advance. The short-term speculative funds are also quick in and out, causing the market to jump up and down. Those who followed our trading rhythm this week have also enjoyed big gains. For those who missed out, don’t be regretful. Today, Tommy will once again clarify the watershed between Bitcoin and Ethereum.

BTC: Bitcoin is currently repeatedly testing the bottom near the 12H level of the box bottom, showing selling pressure and emotional sentiment. The 4H chart also shows a shrinking volume and a downward trend. The overall trend remains dominated by bears. Today’s intraday focus will be on two key zones: the upper zone around 88000-89000, which was yesterday’s resistance area after a rally, serving as the primary target for short-term shorts; and the lower zone around 85000-83500, which is the short-term box floor and an important mid-term defense zone. This is also a true emotional capitulation area. The strategy for Bitcoin is mainly to rebound on high-altitude corrections and to go long at low levels for short-term retracements. Remember, don’t expect to eat a big bullish candle in one go; quick in and out is the key to rhythm and discipline.

ETH: Ethereum is now smarter than Bitcoin, with weaker rebounds but faster declines. Focus on the short-term resistance zone around 3030. The support zone at 2850-2830 is for bulls. If the price approaches 3030 again and cannot break through with volume, that will be our primary target for short entries. You can refer to the same timing as Bitcoin for operations. Only after Ethereum repeatedly dips back to 2880-2850 for washout and accumulation, then rebounds, will the possibility of breaking above later increase. Pay attention to volume and price action; only when volume and price rise together can a sustained short- to medium-term rebound occur.

Intraday Trading Viewpoint (Mainly shorting, don’t try to bottom fish. Bottom fishing is just fueling the bears)

1. Enter long near ETH 2880-2830, with stop-loss at 2800, take profit at 2930-3030. For short positions, enter at 3030, stop-loss at 3085, take profit at 2930-2880.
2. Enter long near BTC 85500-85000, with stop-loss at 84700, take profit at 87800-89000.
   Note: When the take profit is reached without breaking the previous high, it’s a signal to reverse and go short again. Overall, recent operations follow the principle of high short and low long, riding the rhythm of the main force’s washouts.

Price levels are time-sensitive, and there may be delays in posting, so please refer to real-time market conditions. Lastly, remember the two key points from my previous article: in the short term, focus on testing positions; once outside our target zones, it’s the last chance to buy big before the end of the year. I am K-line Life Tommy, your real-time crypto butler.

Mainly for spot, futures, BTC/ETH/ETC

Expertise: K-line trading

Original volume-based trading strategy.

Short-term swing trading at high and low levels, medium- and long-term trend orders, daily extreme retracements, weekly top predictions, monthly top predictions.