Upcoming Uptrend Cycle: Signals from Monetary Policy and Market Trends

Economic Background Creating Conditions for an Uptrend

Currently, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has paused interest rate hikes for the past 2 months. According to forecasts, for at least the next 2 months, interest rates will remain high to completely eliminate leveraged investors before financial markets including crypto, stocks, and real estate enter a new growth phase.

The (CPI) inflation index is currently at 3.7%. If the high-interest-rate policy is maintained, it is very likely that by the end of this year, this index will drop to Fed’s 2% target, laying the groundwork for interest rate cuts. This means that the uptrend could arrive earlier than initial predictions, possibly around Q1-2024.

Uptrend Activation Tools: Bitcoin ETF and Technology

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is strategically waiting for the most opportune moment—when the Fed begins to cut interest rates—to approve Bitcoin ETFs and tech coins. These approvals will become the main catalysts for the next uptrend cycle, similar to how Elon Musk boosted BTC to kick off the 2021 growth cycle.

Crypto Market Cycle History: From Inception to Application

To better understand the upcoming uptrend, it’s important to review the development stages of the market:

Stage 1 (2008-2013): The Beginning
The market focused on BTC, primarily to establish the concept of digital currency.

Stage 2 (2014-2017): Idea Screening
High-quality whitepaper projects received strong funding. This was when projects with only good ideas were prioritized by the market.

Stage 3 (2018-2022): Technology Testing
Projects competing based on technological platforms. New sectors like L1, DeFi, GameFi, and Metaverse emerged and were tested through real-world use.

Stage 4 (2023-2026): Focus on Practical Applications
Projects from previous seasons without real-world utility will be phased out, similar to EOS and NEO, which couldn’t compare to the new projects of 2021. This cycle will focus on highly applicable projects, especially infrastructure. Projects that repeat old stories like “ETH killers” will be eliminated by the market.

Stage 5 (2027-2030): Mass Adoption?
The future of the market remains uncertain.

Investment Strategy for the Upcoming Uptrend

Based on current signals, the uptrend is forecasted to start around Q1-2024. Bitcoin ETF combined with Web3 and AI technologies will be the main drivers of this cycle.

Investor Recommendations:

• Prioritize infrastructure projects over outdated coins
• Avoid projects that focus solely on technological theory but lack practical value
• Pay attention to projects with high implementation potential and sustainable growth prospects

The upcoming uptrend will not resemble previous cycles—this is a time when the value of real-world applications will be priced higher than grand claims on paper.