Recently in the trading community, the topic "Federal Reserve rate cut" has surged in popularity, with many people pulling out the forward dot plot to calculate probabilities, fearing to miss the next market opportunity. But a closer look at the latest statements from Federal Reserve officials suggests things might not be that simple.

Let's start with hard data. Over the past week, seven Fed officials have spoken out one after another, with a surprisingly consistent core stance: now is not the time to cut rates. Many of these officials are known as "doves," who typically favor easing policies. Even they emphasize the necessity of maintaining high interest rates, indicating that the consensus within the Fed on current policy is much firmer than the market imagines.

Next, look at Chair Powell's speaking style. Every public statement seems to be playing tai chi—sometimes emphasizing "monitoring data trends," other times mentioning "policy flexibility," without providing a specific timetable for rate cuts. This approach is actually balancing two goals: preventing the market from becoming completely disappointed, and controlling overly optimistic expectations.

The most telling indicator is the forward dot plot. The median forecast of Fed officials shows only two rate cuts planned between 2026 and 2027. This timeframe hardly looks like the start of an easing cycle; instead, it more resembles an official announcement that high interest rates may persist for some time.

Discussions in the community about rate cuts saving the market are more like collective bedtime stories than genuine market signals. At this point, it’s more practical to view policy directions objectively and not be driven by emotions and expectations.